MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets
Trevor Rodgers Over 5.5 Strikeouts -160 (BetMGM)
Rogers has a fantastic matchup tonight to rack up some strikeouts. The Giants have a 30.3% K rate against left-handed pitching this season, and they have the highest K rate of any MLB team on the road so far this year. Rodgers is in the 58th percentile for strikeout rate, the 59th in whiff%, and the 95th in chase rate. Rodgers has just 16 strikeouts in three starts, but he faced two teams who do not strike out that much, and he still put up four, five, and seven Ks. I expect Rodgers to shut down this lackluster Giants’ offense that strikeout a lot.
Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 Strikeouts -104 (FanDuel)
Rasmussen is off to a hot start this season, and I expect him to have a great day today against the Reds. Cincinnati has a 24.6% K rate against right-handed pitching and a 24.1% K rate when playing at home. Rasmussen has been elite this season, and he is in the 96th percentile in chase rate and the 78th in K percentage. In a game that could get out of hand for the Reds quickly, I like Rasmussens’ chances tonight.
Corey Kluber Over 4.5 Strikeouts +100 (FanDuel)
Corey Kluber has not looked like the Kluber of old, but he has been striking out batters this season. Kluber rang up seven Rays in his last and best start of the season, but that is the only time he has gone over this number. I like him to go over it today, considering the Twins have the 4th highest K rate in baseball and a 25.6% K rate on the road. In 82 plate appearances, the Twins’ current roster has a 36.6% K rate against Kluber. He should go over this modest number tonight.
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts -104 (FanDuel)
Morton, at age 39, is clearly slowing down, and I do not expect him to strike out six Padres tonight on the road. For starters, the Padres have already seen Morton, and while he fanned six in that outing, it is very hard to do that again, especially less than two weeks later. San Diego is 2nd in K rate against righties, but they are 18th in K rate at home. Morton is in the 15th percentile for K rate, 23 percentile for Whiff %, and 44th in chase rate, inspiring little confidence he goes over this number today.
MLB Stat Sheet
Have you taken a look at GoldSheet’s new MLB stat sheet? For just $15 a week, you get daily breakdowns of pitching matchups, batters vs pitcher reports, advanced analytics, and two free betting picks a day. At just $2 a day for the week, what are you waiting for?
Have you seen the new GoldSheet MLB stat pages? Bookmark goldsheet.com/mlb-player-news for the latest MLB scores, stats, standing, and injury news.
2023 MLB Season Previews
- NL MVP
- AL MVP
- AL Cy Young
- NL Cy Young
- AL Rookie of the Year
- NL Rookie of the Year
- AL East
- AL Central
- NL East
- NL Central
- NL West