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2023 NL Cy Young Odds and Betting Predictions

Coors Field in Denver

Play Ball! Opening day is Thursday, March 30th, so now is the time to dive into the MLB awards market. Sandy Alcantara (+450), last year’s winner, is the favorite to repeat as the NL Cy Young winner. Corbin Burnes (+550) and Justin Verlander (+600) have the next shortest odds to take home the NL Cy Young award. 

2023 NL Cy Young Odds

Player Team Odds
Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins +450
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers +550
Justin Verlander New York Mets +600
Max Scherzer New York Mets +800
Spencer Strider Atlanta Braves +950
Max Fried Atlanta Braves +1000
Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies +1200
Zach Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies +1200
Zac Gallen Arizona Diamondbacks +1500
Brandon Woodruff Milwaukee Brewers +1900
Joe Musgrove San Diego Padres +1900
Julio Urias Los Angeles Dodgers +2000
Yu Darvish San Diego Padres +2200
Logan Webb San Francisco Giants +3000
Kyle Wright Atlanta Braves +3000
Blake Snell San Diego Padres +3500

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1.

NL Cy Young Favorites

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (+450)Alcantara was dominant last season and took home the NL Cy Young award. Alcantara started to struggle toward the end of last season, which poses the question of whether last season was a fluke. The odds makers do not think so, but I can see the argument for Alcantra not being able to match what he did last season. His 8.0 WAR led all players in the NL last year. 

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+550) Burnes won the Cy Young award in 2021 but had a down season by his standards last year. However, a down season for Burnes is an incredible season for most other pitchers. Burnes and the Brewers had arbitration issues this off-season, and it is fair to believe Burnes will be traded at some point this season. He has all the stuff to be a Cy Young winner again, the question is whether or not he plays in the National League all season. 

Justin Verlander, New York Mets (+600) Verlander was the prized free agent signing for the Mets this season, and he makes the case for being the best pitcher in the NL. Fresh off an AL Cy Young win last year, Verlander has a new challenge with the Mets in a tough NL East this season. Verlander is an ageless wonder, so it’s tough to expect anything but amazing play from him.

NL Cy Young Value Bets

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1500) Gallen finished 5th in MVP voting last season, and I expect him to be even better this season. Gallen is still entering his prime and had his best season in the majors last year. He has the stuff to lead the NL in WHIP again this season, and I expect his 3.05 FIP to come down this year as well. 

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+1200) Nola has the 7th best odds to win the NL Cy Young this season, but that seems too low for a guy this talented. He finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting last season, and you can make the case that he is still improving as a player. Nola’s command and velocity make him so tough to hit, and he could be the catalyst for a Phillies team looking to make another deep postseason run.

NL Cy Young Longshot

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (+5000) Kershaw is a living legend, and it’s tough to ignore his subtle fall from grace as the best pitcher in the NL. Father time seems to be catching up to Kershaw, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have one more vintage season. In 22 starts last year, Kershaw had a 2.57 FIP, a .942 WHIP, and 137 strikeouts. These are still solid numbers, so taking a flyer on one of the best pitchers in recent memory at 50-1 is worthwhile.

Past NL Cy Young Award Winners

2022 – Sandy Alcantara, Miami
2021 – Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee
2020 – Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati
2019 – Jacob deGrom, New York
2018 – Jacob deGrom, New York
2017 – Max Scherzer, Washington
2016 – Max Scherzer, Washington
2015 – Jake Arrieta, Chicago
2014 – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
2013 – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
2012 – R.A. Dickey, New York
2011 – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
2010 – Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

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