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2023 AL Cy Young Odds and Betting Predictions

Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia

Play Ball! Opening day is Thursday, March 30th, so now is the time to dive into the MLB awards market. Jacob deGrom (+550), the newest addition to the AL pitching landscape, is already the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award. Gerrit Cole (+650) and Alek Manoah (+800) have the next shortest odds to take home the AL Cy Young. 

2023 AL Cy Young Odds

Player Team Odds
Jacob deGrom Texas Rangers +550
Gerrit Cole New York Yankees +650
Alex Manoah Toronto Blue Jays +800
Dylan Cease Chicago White Sox +900
Shane Bieber Cleveland Guardians +950
Carlos Rodon New York Yankees +1000
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels +1200
Shane McClanahan Tampa Bay Rays +1200
Framber Valdez Houston Astros +1500
Kevin Gausman Toronto Blue Jays +1600
Robbie Ray Seattle Mariners +1600
Luis Castillo Seattle Mariners +1700
Logan Gilbert Seattle Mariners +1800
Triston McKenzie Cleveland Guardians +3000
Lucas Giolito Chicago White Sox +3500
Lance Lynn  Chicago White Sox +4000

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1.

AL Cy Young Favorites

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+550)Jacob deGrom, when healthy, is the best pitcher in baseball. He already has two Cy Young Awards under his belt, but his last three seasons have been littered with injuries. If deGrom can start 25+ games, he will always be in the conversation for Cy Young. However, injuries have already reared its head this off-season, so deGrom is a tough player to gauge. 

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+650) Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2018, but he has yet to win the Cy Young award. Cole made 33 starts last year, and he has a great season, but he still left a lot to be desired. While Cole’s talent is undeniable, being +650 to win the Cy Young seems a little too low.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays, (+800) Last year was Manoah’s first full season in the Majors, and he was spectacular for most of the season. However, he fell off toward the end of last year as hitters got more comfortable with his stuff. Manoah certainly has a bright future, but I need to see more of him to justify him having the third shortest odds to win the AL Cy Young.

AL Cy Young Value Bets

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians (+3000) This is my favorite Cy Young bet in either league. McKenzie’s talent has always been incredible, but he took a major leap forward last year. In his 30 starts, he had a 3.59 FIP, a .951 WHIP, and a 129 ERA+. These numbers could use some improvement, but I expect McKenzie to take an even bigger leap this season. 

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (+1500)Valdez had an incredible 2022 season and finished 5th in Cy Young voting and 20th in MVP voting. The Astros lost Justin Verlander this offseason, and Valdez will need to pick up the slack. He pitched three complete games last season and led the AL in innings pitched. If he can do that again, and the Astros continue to roll as expected, he should be in consideration for this award.

AL Cy Young Longshot

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (+4000) Lynn is coming off a down year where he only made 21 starts, but I expect him to come back firing this season. Lynn finished in the top six of Cy Young voting in 2019, 2020, and 2021, and he is primed for a return to form this season. Lynn is in great shape and can regain his status as the top pitcher for Chicago this season.

Past AL Cy Young Award Winners

2022 – Justin Verlander, Houston
2021 – Robbie Ray, Toronto
2020 – Shane Bieber, Cleveland
2019 – Justin Verlander, Houston
2018 – Blake Snell, Tampa Bay
2017 – Corey Kluber, Cleveland
2016 – Rick Porcello, Boston
2015 – Dallas Keuchel, Houston
2014 – Corey Kluber, Cleveland
2013 – Max Scherzer, Detroit
2012 – David Price, Tampa Bay
2011 – Justin Verlander, Detroit
2010 – Felix Hernandez, Seattle

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