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MLB Player Props – Best Bets for Thursday, April 20th

After a full 15-game slate of action, we have a small, seven-game slate of games with a bunch of new series starting. Where is there value in the player prop markets? Let’s dive into the best player props to bet on today.

MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets

Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts -155 (BetRivers)

Kodai Senga’s MLB career is off to a blazing start, and he has the opportunity to make it four straight great starts with 6 or more strikeouts. He toes the slab in San Francisco tonight, which is a prime opportunity to rack up strikeouts. At the moment, Senga is in just the 11th percentile in chase rate, but he is in the 82nd percentile in K rate and the 73rd in whiff percentage. Senga rang up 8 Ks in his first start, 6th in his 2nd, and 7 in his third, so he has shown he can strikeout batters with ease. The Giants have the highest K rate against righties in baseball and the 2nd highest K rate at home. Unless San Francisco can get to Senga early, I do not see Senga going under this number. His pitching style is unique, and it is tough to adjust to it your first time seeing him.

Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 Strikeouts +100 (BetMGM)

Ryne Nelson, the 25-year-old righty for the D-Backs, is off to a very solid start this season. However, I do not think he rings up more than five Padres tonight at home.  At home this year, Nelson has a 12.0% K rate. He is in the 11th percentile in K rate, the 6th in chase rate, and the 21st in Whiff%. Nelson only struck out three Padres when they faced off in San Diego on 4/3. San Diego is susceptible to the strikeout, and even with Tatis coming back today, that still holds true. However, Nelson has shown he is not a K pitcher in the MLB, and he was not one in AAA either.

Matt Strahm Over 4.5 Strikeouts -138 (FanDuel)

In Strahm’s three starts this season, he has recorded 3, 6, and 6 strikeouts. The Rockies have a 24.9% K rate against left-handed pitching and just a 75 wRC+. That leads me to believe that Colorado won’t knock Strahm out of the game early, and he will have the opportunity to pitch deeper into this ballgame. On the road, the Rockies have a 27.1% K rate. This is a good matchup for Strahm to get 5 or more Ks.

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