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MLB Player Props – Best Bets for Friday, March 31st

Opening day featured a full 15-game slate, but today, the second day of the season, we have just five MLB games on the betting menu. Though it is a small slate, it is an intriguing one. What’s the best way to attack today’s slate? Through MLB player props.

On the agenda today is an NL East matchup between the Mets and Marlins, two NL West showdowns between the Rockies and Padres and the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and two AL inter-division matchups between the Guardians and Mariners and the White Sox and Astros.

Where is there value in the player prop market today? Let’s take a look at some props that stick out and are worth betting on.

MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets

Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts +111 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Javier did not qualify for the leaderboards since he did not pitch enough innings, but he was a strikeout machine last year. Javier had a 29.4% K% last season and an 11.79 K/9, and of all pitchers with 140 or more innings pitched, he would have ranked 3rd in K/9 in the MLB. In his one outing against Chicago last season, Javier struck out five in five innings of work, but he walked four, so his pitch count went up, and he was not able to pitch deep into the game. I expect him to come out firing tonight against the White Sox.

Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Hits +240 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yordan Alvarez went deep last night, and he looked to be in great form despite not playing all too much in exhibition games this Spring. From what we can tell, there’s no rust on Alvarez. He is one of the scariest hitters in the game, and he has seen Lance Lynn really well in their matchups against each other. In 11 appearances against the right Lynn, the lefty Alvarez is 5-11 with a home run, five hits, and four strikeouts. His .455 batting average against Lynn speaks volumes, and since Lynn does not walk a lot of batters, I expect Alvarez to jump on him and put the ball in play.

Robbie Ray Under 5.5 Strikeouts -122 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Robbie Ray finished 7th in the MLB last season in total strikeouts thrown, but I do not expect him to be mowing down Guardians hitters tonight at home. The Guardians struck out 9 times last night, which is unusual for this team. Cleveland sports basically have the same lineup as last season, and they struck out the least when on the road in 2022. In Ray’s first start against Cleveland last year, he struck out seven at home, but in his second start against Cleveland on the road, he only had three Ks. Ray is certainly a strikeout guy, but the value tonight lies in his under.

MLB Player Props – Best Same Game Parlay 

Mets @ Marlins

Jeff McNeil to Record a hit (-240) / Over 6.5 Runs (-186) / Jorge Soler to Record 2+ Total Bases (+155)
+368 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jeff McNeil is 4-8 in his career against Luzardo with four singles. Ideally, McNeil has three chances against Luzardo tonight, so the 2022 NL batting champ can get a hit. I also expect this game to have a lot of runs scored. The Mets used three of their top bullpen arms last night, and all three pitched well. Hard to imagine that they’d go back and pitch the same three guys tonight, they’ll need to get other guys involved in the mix, which is good for Miami. Lastly, Soler could have a big day as a righty bat against a lefty pitcher. In two at-bats, Sole is 1-2 against Peterson, but he is one of the only Marlins with power, and he can find the gap or hit a ball over the wall in Miami tonight. 

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