We swept the board on July 3rd, and we hope everyone had a great holiday yesterday. We have a loaded MLB card today, and there is value betting on MLB player props. What are the best MLB player props to lock in today? Let’s dive in.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts -125 (PointsBet)
Lance Lynn has gotten hit around this season, but he is still striking out batters at a near-elite level. Lynn is in the 73rd percentile for K rate, the 80th in whiff%, and the 53rd in chase rate. He has gone over this number in four of his last five starts and in 11/17 this season. The Blue Jays are striking out at a 23.1% clip over the last week. They are also 13th in swinging strike percentage over the last week, and Lynn is 7th on the season in swinging strikes induced. Lynn should be able to ring up six or more Blue Jays tonight at home.
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs -105 (DraftKings)
Varsho has had a lackluster season at the plate, especially against righties, but this is as good of a matchup as he can ask for. As bad as Varsho has been at the dish against righties, Lynn has been worse on the mound against lefties. Lynn has an MLB-leading 14.02 H/9 against left-handed bats with a 7.06 FIP, a 3.35 HR/9, and a .655 slugging percentage. Varsho normally bats in this six-hole, so he should be up with runners in scoring position. Asking Varsho for a hit seems like a tall task, but lefties have owned Lynn all season long.
Jeimer Candelario Over 1.5 Hits/Run/RBIs -115 (DraftKings)
Candelario is batting just .250 over the last week, but he is hitting the ball hard 45.5% of the time with an 18.2% barrel rate. Ashcraft looked great in his last start, but on the season, he is still allowing a .284 batting average to left-handed batters with a .482 slugging percentage, a 5.03 FIP, and a 1.56 HR/9. Candelario has been striking out a lot lately, but Ashcraft is not a strikeout pitcher by any means. Given that Candelario bats third for the Nationals, he should have a lot of chances to get on base or knock in a run tonight at home.
MLB Stat Sheet
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MLB Transactions
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