MLB Player Props – Best Bets for 7/31

Monday has just a 10-game slate, but that does not mean there isn’t money to be made. For all picks, click here. For the best MLB player props, keep reading.

MLB Player Props – Best Bets

George Kirby Under 5.5 Strikeouts +122 (FanDuel)

Based on his last two starts, you’d think George Kirby is an elite K pitcher. The truth is, he is not, he averages less than a strikeout an inning, and he has only eclipsed this number in just 9/20 starts. Kirby lives around the strike zone and does not walk many batters. His bread and butter are inducing chases, and the Sox are 18th in chase rate this season, so that is not an avenue for Kirby to rack up a ton of Ks. Also, Boston is 7th in contact %, 9th in O-contact%, and 5th in Z-Contact%, which shows this team makes a lot of contact. Asking Kirby for six Ks seems like a tall order.

Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 Strikeouts -155 (FanDuel)

It’s no secret that the Nationals are one of the more difficult teams to strike out. They have the 2nd lowest K rate against righties and the lowest K rate at home this season. Over the last week, Washington is 24th in K rate and 7th in contact%. Still, this number is too low for Corbin Burnes. Burnes has gone over this number in 12/21 starts this season, including all of his last five. He is in the 64th percentile for K rate, the 69th for whiff%, and the 71st for chase rate. Washington chases the 5th most of any team in baseball. Asking Burnes for 6 Ks seems fair, and he should eclipse this number.

Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Strikeouts -150 (BetMGM)

Morton has slowed down on the strikeouts over his last five starts, but based on his season-long metrics, he should be able to ring up seven Angels tonight at home. The Angels are striking out 25% of the time over the last week, and they are 29th in Z-contact, 26th in O-contact, and 2nd in swinging strike %. Morton induces whiffs mostly – he is in the 80th percentile for whiff rate, and overall, he is in the 59th percentile for chase rate and the 59th percentile for K rate. The Angels look lost in the box, so seven strikeouts from Morton should be doable.