MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts -150 (BetMGM)
Castillo’s last start was at home against the Twins, and he struck out 11 in six innings of work. Over the last week, the Twins did not improve upon their league-leading strikeout rate or their worst in the MLB contact rate. Castillo is an elite strikeout pitcher – he is in the 77th percentile for K rate, the 89th for whiff%, and the 74th for chase rate. Asking him to ring up seven Twins after ringing up 11 five days ago seems feasible.
Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts -148 (FanDuel)
The Astros have been a tough team to strike out this season, and asking Gray to finish with less than six Ks seems like a great bet. Gray has gone over this number in just 4/18 starts this season. Gray is in the 28th percentile for K rate, the 46th for whiff%, and the 91st for chase rate. Since the All-Star break, the Astros are 24th in the MLB in K rate, and they are 27th in O-swing%. Considering Gray only rang up four Astros in his first start against them this season, this number seems high.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 (DraftKings)
Betts is familiar with Berrios from their time in the AL East, and Mookie has gotten the best of him. Mookie is 7-16 (.438) against Berrios with two home runs and seven total hits. Over the last week, Mookie is only batting .160, but he has hit the ball hard 45% of the time, leading me to believe that the hits will start coming. This is a perfect matchup for Mookie to get right, also considering that the Blue Jays bullpen has been bad all season long. Asking Mookie to hit a double or to get two hits is not a lot to ask for in this matchup.
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