MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts +114 (FanDuel)
Blake Snell has been an absolute strikeout stud this season, and this number seems to be set too low, especially given that it’s plus money. Snell has gone over this number in his last nine starts, including his last start, where he only threw 80 pitches. Generally, the Blue Jays are a low-strikeout team, but since the All-Star break, Toronto is 14th in the MLB in K rate. Also, in the last 30 days, the Jays have the seventh-highest K rate against lefties at 25.6%. This is one of the more difficult matchups Snell has had recently from a strikeout perspective, but asking a pitcher who owns a 15.35 K/9 to get seven at plus money is a bet worth making.
Alex Cobb Under 5.5 Strikeouts -130 (DraftKings)
Since the All-Star break, the Reds have been one of the easier teams to strike out. However, heading into the All-Star break, the Reds were the most difficult team to strike out. After a few stinkers, the Reds’ offense seems to be back and track, and Cobb should not rack up six Ks in this game. Cobb has gone over this number in 8/17 starts this season. He is in the 80th percentile for chase rate, and his sinker and splitter are his two strikeout pitches, and his K% jumps up when he is on the road. The Reds’ recent O-Zone contact% and swinging strike% are not great, but on the season, they are middle of the pack in these two metrics. Over the course of the season, the Reds do not chase too often, and they can make contact in the zone. This number seems a little too high.
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs -110 (DraftKings)
The Cardinals are heating up, and Paul Goldschmidt has been a big reason why St. Louis has been winning since the All-Star break. In the past six games, Goldschmidt has scored five runs, has three RBIs, seven hits, and a 123 wRC+. In his career against Marcus Stroman, Goldy is 9-24 (.375) with three home runs, two doubles, and nine total hits. Stroman has been tough to hit this season, but in his last four starts, he has allowed 13 runs in 19.2 innings of work. Considering Chicago also has one of the worse bullpens in baseball, Goldy should have plenty of opportunities to rack up 2 or more hits, runs, or RBIs.
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