We have a full MLB slate today, which means there are a lot of MLB player props to keep our eyes on. For all picks, head on over to WagerTalk. What are the best MLB player props to bet on today? Let’s dive in.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts -108 (FanDuel)
It took Musgrove a little bit to come back into form after he returned from injury, but Musgrove is looking elite again. He’s in the 99th percentile for chase rate, the 54th for whiff%, and the 57th for K%. For context, Musgrove didn’t find his strikeout stride until a month ago, and he has racked up six or more Ks in each of his last four starts. Over the course of the season, the Blue Jays have found success not striking against righties and at home, and this trend has continued since the All-Star break. However, we expect regression from Toronto, considering they have not faced any elite strikeout pitchers since the break. Musgrove should be able to rack up six Ks tonight in Toronto.
Alek Manoah Over 4.5 Hits Allowed -130 (BetMGM)
Manoah’s first start back from his minor league stint was a good one. He allowed one run on five hits with eight strikeouts against the Tigers in Detroit. Now he has to face a much better offense at home, where he has been much worse this season. At home, Manoah is allowing a .345 batting average, a .466 OBP, and a .457 wOBA. His FIP is a crazy 8.11, his xFIP is 6.74, and he has allowed 41 hits in just 28 innings of work. It is foolish to expect Manoah to just return to Cy Young form after one good start against a bad Tigers team. San Diego should beat up on Manoah tonight.
Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs +100 (DraftKings)
Over his short MLB career, Moniak has proved he can hit right-handed pitching very, very well. Luis Severino allows a .333 batting average to left-handed hitters, a .420 wOBA, a 6.85 FIP, a 5.90 xFIP, and a .346 BABIP. Moniak has a .353 batting average against righties, a 190 wRC+, a .448 wOBA, a .331 ISO, and a .684 slugging percentage. Severino’s top three pitches are a curveball, a 4-seamer, and a changeup. Moniak bats .389 against curveballs, .292 against 4-seamers, and .370 against changeups. Considering Moniak bats behind Ohtani, he certainly should have chances to knock him in.
MLB Stat Sheet
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MLB Transactions
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