MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Drew Smyly Under 4.5 Strikeouts -132 (FanDuel)
Drew Smyly is in just the 26th percentile for K rate and has a tough matchup at home tonight against the Nationals. Smyly has only gone over this number in 6/18 starts. In July, Washington has the 3rd lowest K rate and the highest Z-contact% in baseball. On the season, Washington has the third-lowest K rate against lefties and the second-lowest K rate on the road. Considering Washington is 12th in wRC+ against lefties and 8th in wOBA, it is fair to say the Nationals see lefties very well. Smyly should not rack up five or more strikeouts.
Brandon Williamson Over 4.5 Strikeouts +110 (FanDuel)
Williamson is not a strikeout pitcher, but he has a great matchup to rack up five or more strikeouts tonight at home against the Giants. On the season, he has only gone over this number in 4/10 starts. However, the Giants have a 24.5% K rate against left-handed pitching, and the Giants have the third-highest K rate in baseball on the road. It is also the first time any Giant will see Williamson pitch, which gives the pitcher an advantage. At plus money, this is worth a stab.
Luis Severino Over 4.5 Strikeouts -152 (BetRivers)
Severino has not had a great season by any means, but he gets a great matchup tonight against an Angels team that has been striking out at an alarming rate. In July, the Angels have a 28.2% K rate which leads the MLB. Severino has not gone over this number in a month, but he also faced three teams which much lower strikeout rates at the time. Considering the Angels are coming off Sunday Night Baseball, this could be an opportunity to back Severino.
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2023 MLB Season Previews
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