MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts -125 (BetMGM)
Glasnow rung up 12 Royals in just five innings when he faced them at home at the end of June, so asking him to strike out eight tonight in Kansas City seems fair. The Royals strike out less at home, but Glasnow has shown he is an elite K pitcher since coming back from injury. Glasnow has cleared this number in four of his eight starts, but that ranks him in the 97th percentile for K rate, the 97th for whiff%, and the 88th for chase rate. The Royals are 4th in K rate against right-handed pitching and 5th in K rate in the month of July.
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts +108 (FanDuel)
Rodon is making just his 2nd start since coming off the IL, and his first start did not inspire a ton of confidence. Last season, Rodon was an elite K pitcher, and despite playing the Rockies twice, he never pitched in Colorado. Even though the Rockies have the 3rd highest K rate against lefties and simply do not hit lefties well, it is hard to rack up strikeouts at Coors Field. Rodon will probably be on a pitch count tonight as well, so asking him to ring up six Rockies while he is not at 100% health at Coors Field may be too much to ask for.
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts -105 (DraftKings)
Burnes struck out six Reds in his last start before the All-Star break at home in a game the Brewers won 7-3. Now, the Reds are at home, and I expect Burnes to only ring up six or fewer Reds again today. Heading into the break, the Reds had the 4th highest contact percentage and the 2nd lowest swinging strike percentage. While Burnes racks up a lot of whiffs and chases, he is in just the 50th percentile for K rate this season. While it remains to be seen what form any player/team is in after the All-Star break, this is still a great matchup for the Reds.
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