After an exciting weekend full of baseball, we have a small, six-game slate to kick off the final week of June. What MLB player props have value today? Let’s dive in.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Luis Castillo Under 6.5 Strikeouts -122 (FanDuel)
Castillos has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this season, but he has a tough matchup at home against the Nationals. No, the Nationals are not the scariest offensive team in the MLB, but they are the most contact-heavy, and they have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, this past week, and the 2nd best in the month of June. Castillo is an elite whiff pitcher, but the Nationals whiff the least in the MLB, so I expect them to stay competitive in at-bats and strike out less than seven times tonight.
Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts -148 (FanDuel)
When Detmers is on, he strikes out batters with the best of them. He is in the 80th percentile for K rate, the 74th for whiff%, and the 44th for chase rate. Though the White Sox hit lefties well, they swing and miss the most in baseball, and they chase the most in baseball. The White Sox are 11th in K rate on the road this season, and Detmers K rate jumps to 31.3% when he is pitching at home. This is a great matchup for Detmers to ring up six or more White Sox.
Matt McClain Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 (DraftKings)
After a four extra-base hit day yesterday, McClain has a prime matchup to add two or more total bases to his year-long stats tonight. In 40 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, McClain is batting .350 with a 1.025 OPS and a .325 ISO. Irvin has a 6.00 FIP against righties this season, and he’s allowing a .321 BAA against righties as well. At home against righties, Irvin has a 5.28 xFIP. On the road this season, McClain has a .321 batting average with six extra-base hits in 78 at-bats.
MLB Stat Sheet
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