We have a small, eight-game slate today, but that does not mean there aren’t MLB player props worth wagering on. Where is there value in the MLB player props market? Let’s dive in.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts -125 (DraftKings)
Eflin faced the A’s and had seven strikeouts on 82 back in his second start, and he should be able to replicate that performance tonight in Oakland. Eflin has 66 strikeouts in 66.2 innings of work. He is in the 65th percentile for K rate and the 88th for chase rate. The A’s have the third-highest K rate against right-handed pitching this season and the fourth-highest K rate at home. Eflin does not walk many batters, so he will be pounding the zone, and the A’s should not be able to get to him.
Bryce Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts -104 (FanDuel)
After a hot start to his career, Miller has seen his strikeouts numbers drop every game since his debut. He is now in just the 40th percentile for K rate, but he is in the 78th for chase rate. Miami has the third lowest K rate in June, but they are due to regress. This Miami team started the season with one of the highest K rates vs. righties, and this past weekend in Chicago, they showed they are still susceptible to the strikeout. Miami has the 8th highest chase rate this season, so if Miller is on, he can induce a lot of swings and misses from Miami batters on pitches outside of the zone.
Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts -138 (FanDuel)
Anderson is not a strikeout pitcher by any means, and he should not be ringing up many Rangers tonight in Texas. The Rangers have the best home offense in baseball, they have just a 20.4% K rate vs. lefties, and they have just a 21.8% K rate in the month of June. Anderson has gone over this number just three times this season, and two times were against offenses that notoriously do not hit lefties well. Yes, he struck out six Rangers on 5/5, but Anderson has not been pitching well since then. Anderson should comfortably go under this number.
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