MLB Player Props – Best Bets for 5/19

Another day, another loaded 15-game slate of MLB action. What are our favorite MLB player props to bet on today? Let’s dive in.

MLB Player Props – Best Bets

Hunter Greene Under 6.5 Strikeouts -157 (BetRivers)

Hunter Greene is a strikeout machine when he has his stuff. He has gone over this number in four starts this season, he is in the 88th percentile for K rate, the 92nd for whiff%, and the 77th for chase rate. However, asking him to ring up seven or more Mets is a tall order. For starters, the Mets have the lowest K rate of any team on the road this season and the 3rd lowest against right-handed pitching. Secondly, New York is below the league average in whiff and chase rate. Lastly, Greene is in the 21st percentile in hard-hit ball percentage and barrel percentage, meaning teams can hit him and hit him hard. I expect the Mets to stay disciplined and get to Greene today.

Clayton Kershaw Over 7.5 Strikeouts -144 (FanDuel)

What year is this? Are we back in 2012? The way Kershaw has been pitching this season, it is certainly hard to tell. Through seven starts, Kershaw is in the 78th percentile for strikeout rate, the 77th for whiff%, and the 93rd for chase rate. He has rung up eight or more three times in seven starts, and those were starts against teams who can actually hit lefties. The Brewers cannot. Milwaukee has the highest K rate against left-handed pitching and the lowest wRC+ and ISO. I expect more vintage, or should I say present, Kershaw on the bump tonight against the Brewers.

Kyle Muller Under 4.5 Strikeouts -161 (Caesars)

Kyle Muller is not a strikeout pitcher, and I do not anticipate him racking up strikeouts today in the Bronx. Muller has gone over this number just one time this season – at home against the Guardians. Muller is in the 5th percentile for K rate, the 14th for whiff%, and the 20th for chase rate. The Yankees do not strike out often, and with Aaron Judge back in the fold, they are a much scarier offense. Despite the hefty juice, I will gladly go under here.

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