Betting the MLB – How to Optimize a Same Game Parlay

Over the last couple of years, no other form of betting has become more popular than a same game parlay. This term actually never existed until FanDuel trademarked the phrase in November 2019. Since then, most operators have added same game parlay betting to their menus, and some bettors specialize only in trying to win through same game parlay betting.

There has been a ton of discussion about the pros and cons of betting a same game parlay. There are certainly instances where the odds on these parlays are terrible, and they should be avoided. There are also instances where under the right circumstances, you can make a great same game parlay.

Don’t make same game parlays the main staple of your betting portfolio. However, if you want to put in a longshot ticket for fun, or try to capture some positive EV through a same game parlay, here are our tips to give you the best shot.

How to Optimize a Same Game Parlay – Advanced Stats

Baseball is driven by statistics. It always has been, and it always will be. While this holds true, the actual stats used are frequently evolving, giving bettors and sportsbooks more intricate understandings of how players perform.

Most baseball fans are familiar with vanilla statistics like ERA, BA, OPS, WHIP, RBIs, etc. But how many fans frequently dive into FIP, wRC+, WAR, LOB%, xWOBA, xFIP, and more? If you are part of a group that has never dove into any of these stats, this would be a great place to start.

FIP is essentially a better indication of a pitcher’s performance than ERA. ERA simply is how many earned runs a pitcher allowed divided by the number of innings a pitcher pitched. FIP measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing.

If a pitcher has a high ERA but a low FIP, it is likely they are getting unlucky, and vice versa. So, a great strategy for putting together an SGP would be to focus on a player whose line may be mispriced because they have a high ERA. If you see they have a low FIP, yet the odds are saying the pitcher will allow a lot of runs because they have a high ERA, this could be a great leg to add to a same game parlay.

How to Optimize a Same Game Parlay – Off Lines

Have you noticed that when you look at the betting lines and alternate lines at different sportsbooks, the odds are often different? That is because each sportsbook prices individual prop bets and alternate lines differently. Yes, sometimes they will be the same, or they won’t differ too much, but when there is a difference, it can be used to your advantage as a bettor.

Learning which books cater to sharper action and which ones cater to recreational bettors on the WagerTalk odds screen can help shape you find advantages in finding legs for an Single-Game Parlay. For example, if Circa Sports Book has Juan Soto’s total base prop set to O 1.5 -150 and DraftKings has the same prop at O .5 -110, it would make sense to add over .5 total bases to an SGP. Finding instances where sharp sportsbooks have a number that is way off from recreational books is a great tool to find the best legs for a same game parlay.

How to Optimize a Same Game Parlay – Non-Correlated Plays

One of the biggest fallacies in sports betting is that it is easier to bet a parlay on the same game. It is much more difficult.

Think about an event in any sport. Does it sound simple to predict exactly how five players in that singular game are going to perform? Of course not. When you are betting on a same game parlay, that is what you are trying to do. If you find EV in Juan Soto getting a hit, should you also take him to hit a home run? No, you should actually look to the reverse.

If you think the Padres are going to beat up the Rockies, don’t just take every Padres player over. Juan Soto can go 0-2 with two walks and two runs, a great game in the grand scheme of things, but he won’t go over his total base prop. So, instead of loading up on one player to score a run and have over 1.5 total bases, maybe include one of these bets or go over one way and under on the other.

Another one of the pros of a same game parlay is that you can combine overs and under as well as combine same game parlays from multiple games. So, you can parlay Pete Alonso over total bases with Jeff McNeil under total bases with two other props from a different game. You are better off trying to find legs from different games than trying only to parlay multiple events from a single game.

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