Best MLB Player Props Today – Monday, 5/1

After another exciting weekend full of MLB action, we have a small, eight-game slate on Monday, May 1st. What are the best MLB player props to look at today? Here are our favorites.

Best MLB Player Props – May 1st

MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts -118 (FanDuel)
Gore, the 24-year-old left-hander, has been fantastic for Washington so far this season. Gore has gone over this number in each of his last two starts, he sits in the 87th percentile for K rate, the 90th for whiff%, and the 63rd for chase rate. However, I think asking Gore to strike out seven or more Cubs tonight is a tall order. Chicago has a pretty high 23.7% K rate against lefties this season, but they also have a 128 wRC+ and a .197 ISO, meaning they hit lefties very well, and they could knock Gore out of the game early. Lastly, the Cubs are below the MLB average in chase rate and whiff% this season, so they are relatively disciplined in the batter’s box.

Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts +120 (DraftKings)
Berrios had nine Ks in his last start, and he has gone over this number in all but one start this year. Why is this bet at plus odds? The current Red Sox roster has a low 18.7% K rate against Berrios in 75 plate appearances, and the Red Sox have the third-lowest K rate at home this year, but Berrios has had fantastic stuff this season. He is in the 67th percentile for K rate, the 82nd for whiff%, and the 66th for chase rate. Boston chases and whiffs at a below-average rate, but I think Berrios gets the best of the Red Sox today. He has looked much better so far this year, even on the road, and five strikeouts is not asking a lot from him.

Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases +102 (BetRivers)
In his career against Jose Berrios, Verdugo is 6-14 with a home run. In terms of percentile rankings this season, Verdugo is in the 95th percentile in xBA, the 84th in xwOBA, the 42nd in walk percentage, and the 93rd in K rate. This means Verdugo is one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball, and he does not strike out or walk often. He has gone over 1.5 total bases in three of the last four games, and he has a great matchup to do it again tonight.

Luis Garcia (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs San Francisco (-130)
What a difference a day makes, huh? We often hear about players and managers that are reluctant to participate in the home run derby because it alters their swing and approach at the plate. After the derby, it can take a little bit of time to get their normal swing back in line. In Saturday’s game in Mexico City, 11 of the 17 balls that were hit in the air went for a home run. All you had to do was put the ball in the air and there was a 65-percent chance that it was going over the fence. What happened on Sunday? Everyone altered their swing to hit fly balls, and the Giants and Padres combined to strike out 24 times. That may carry over into today. The Giants have the highest strikeout rate against right-hand pitching this season. Luis Garcia has gotten 7+ strikeouts in each of his last three starts. When you add Garcia’s strikeout success with the Giants’ potential hangover from Mexico, that sounds like a recipe for another high-K night in Houston.

Matt Chapman (TOR) Over 1.5 Total Bases at Boston (-115)
Chapman is 5-for-5 with two home runs vs. Corey Kluber in his career. Chapman is hitting .324 vs right-hand pitching this season, including .387 on the road and .450 in the last seven days. Chapman has had an extra-base hit in five of his last seven games.

Luke Weaver (CIN) Over 4.5 Strikeouts at San Diego (-125)
The Padres are averaging 5.16 strikeouts against right-hand starting pitchers this season. Ten of the last 14 right-hand starting pitchers have gone over this number. Weaver has had eight strikeouts in each of his two starts so far this season. San Diego has a top-3 strikeout rate vs right-hand pitchers this season, and you can see above why we’re interested in fading the two teams that are returning from Mexico.

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