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Best Bets – MLB Player Props for Today – 5/4

After cashing in on Charlie Blackmon to hit a home run yesterday, the focus shifts to a small, 10-game Thursday slate. What are the best MLB player props for today? Let’s dive in.

Best MLB Player Props for Today

Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts +105 (DraftKings)

Since getting called up to the Show, Grayson Rodriguez has been electric. Baltimore’s number one prospect has gone over this number in all but one start, which was his MLB debut. In five starts, Rodriguez is in the 91st percentile in K rate, the 66th in whiff%, and the 76th in chase rate. Today, he takes on a lowly Royals team that had an offensive explosion last night. Kansas City has a 25.2% K rate against righties and a 23.4% K rate at home. The Royals are 2nd in the MLB in chase rate and 6th in whiff%. The rookie should have six or more Ks today at Kauffman Stadium.

Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts -160 (DraftKings)

Kevin Gausman has been unbelievable to start this season. He had his third double-digit strikeout game last week, and he has gone over this number in all but one start this year. Gausman is in the 94th percentile in K rate, the 85th in whiff%, and the 97th in chase rate. The Red Sox do not strike out often – in fact, they are last in the MLB in K% against right-handed pitching. Still, this number is too low. The current Red Sox roster is batting .243 in 118 PA vs. Gausman with a 25.4% K rate, a .291 wOBA, and a .369 xSLG, so I do not think Gausman will get hit around. The juice is high, but asking Gausman to strike out just six batters is a bet worth taking.

Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts -125 (Caesars)

Taillon has made just three starts this season, and he has gone well over this number in two of those three starts. However, I expect regression from Taillon. He is in the 65th percentile in K rate, but he is in just the 28th in chase rate and the 33rd in whiff%. For a younger lineup, the Nationals are a very disciplined lineup. They chase slightly above the league average, but they are well below the MLB average in whiff%. The Nationals have the lowest K rate at home this season, and they have the third-lowest K rate against right-handed pitching. Give me Taillon’s under today.

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