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RBC Heritage Odds and Betting Predictions

Jordan Spieth Hitting a Putt at the PGA Championship

In years past, the world’s top players took a breather after the Masters. Thanks to the PGA Tour’s revised schedule and elevated event status, this week’s RBC Heritage has a loaded field. WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang shares his thoughts on this week’s action from South Carolina with betting tips, DFS recommendations, and players to avoid. 

The RBC Heritage Course | Harbour Town

This course is not very long, but it has very small greens that are difficult to keep the ball on, so typically, you’ll have to get up and down from just off the green quite often. However, it looks like rain will be in the area Thursday evening and Friday morning, so that could actually help these guys get the ball to stop on the green a bit easier.

Course history is going to be a bit odd to look at because you’ll see a lot of these guys don’t play here often, and some of the players with good finishes here have been doing it against bad fields. Let’s take a look at the top 10 players in Total Strokes Gained for 2023 in this field:

1. Jon Rahm
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tony Finau
6. Max Homa
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Cameron Young
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Chris Kirk

RBC Heritage Players to Avoid

Max Homa – He has had an incredible season, but I don’t like this tournament for him this week. This tournament has extremely small greens, so you need to be good around the green, and that’s been the weak spot of his game this season. Last week at The Masters, he finished 43rd and was -0.10 strokes gained around the green. He’s got the sixth-best Strokes Gained number in this field, but he’s 68th around the green. Homa has only played here once and finished 41st. The only reason he’s playing this week is that it’s an elevated event this year with big prize money. He’s priced as a top-10 guy this week, but I don’t see it.

Justin Thomas – He is priced as a top-10 guy, but he’s not playing like it. Thomas is 19th in this field in Total Strokes Gained this year, and he’s -0.08 Strokes Gained putting. He played here last year and finished 35th, and that was in a watered-down field. He has two finishes better than 20th this year, and he missed the cut last week. He’s still priced as a top-tier player, but he’s just not playing like it this year.

RBC Heritage DFS Darlings

JT Poston ($7,300) – He has three top-8 finishes in the last four years at this tournament and three really good results in his last three tournaments this year. His game sets up great for this tourney as he’s not long off the tee but accurate with his irons.

Si Woo Kim ($7,600) – Just plug him in your lineup every week he plays. He’s made the cut in 14 out of his last 15 events and made the cut the last two years here.

Matt Kuchar ($7,700) – He’s never missed the cut at this tournament. He finished third last year. You don’t need to be long off the tee, but you need to be accurate with irons and good around the greens…that’s Kuchar’s game in a nutshell.

Final Lineup: JT Poston, Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Tony Finau, Cameron Young

RBC Heritage Best Bet

Jordan Spieth -135 over Max Homa (DraftKings)

Spieth won this tournament last year and has ripped off four top-20 finishes in his last four “regular” tournaments. Spieth ranks No. 6 in this week’s field around the green, and that will be a big advantage for him. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a bit of regression from Homa the next month or so, as the start to the year has been incredible, but 43rd last week might have been a small sign of things to come.