On Thursday night, the Patriots head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The Patriots season is lost and dead, but the Steelers are fighting for a playoff spot. This game has a total of 30 points, showing how down the market is on both of these offenses. Who is going to win this ugly Thursday Night Football game? Let’s dive in.
Patriots vs Steelers – Tech Angle
The Patriots are 2-10 SU and ATS. The Steelers are 7-5 SU and ATS. New England is 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in their L10 meetings with the Steelers. Those games went 7-3 to the under. New England is 13-4-2 ATS in their L19 games against Pittsburgh, and the total has gone under in the L5 games between these two teams in Pittsburgh. Six of the L7 games between these two teams have gone under the total.
Both of these teams have been great defensively over the last few weeks. In fact, defense is what is winning the Steelers games. On the other hand, the Patriots’ defense has been amazing, but their offense cannot score points. Will Bill Belichick be able to keep up his good play against Mike Tomlin, even with a clear talent gap between these two teams?
Patriots vs Steelers – Analysis
Of all the bad Thursday night games we have already had to endure, this upcoming game may be the worst one. I mean, the total is 30.5. That rivals the likes of Iowa college football or the Army/Navy game. This total indicates a lousy game for fans and viewers, and the recent play of both of these teams validates it.
New England is a wreck on offense, but their defense has been playing lights out. The Steelers offense has been playing slightly better than the Patriots offense, but their defense has been slightly worse. New England has combined for 13 points over their last three games. No amount of box score diving or advanced statistic research can make that look better than it is. On the bright side, this defense has been third in EPA/drive and second in success rate and held their opponents to 10 or fewer points in the last three games.
While that seems like a recipe for winning, scoring just 6, seven, then 0 makes it impossible to win, and the Patriots are now 2-10 SU and ATS this season. The Steelers had a chance to improve their record, but they lost outright against one of the worst teams in the NFL at home.
Now, on a short week the Steelers, presumably with Mitch Trubisky at QB, are six-point favorites over New England. We do not know how Pittsburgh covers six, but we also do not know how New England scores in this game. We can say the same thing about Pittsburgh; their defense should certainly hold up, but how the hell are they putting up enough points to win this game by margin? It is next to impossible to take the Patriots at this point with any conviction, but that would be the only side to lean toward here. New England in a non-advantage teaser could be a look with such a low total, but this could be a game to skip this week.
The spread is still six, and while it is not traditional, teasing the Patriots up or the total up is a good way to bet on this game.
Patriots vs Steelers – Prediction
If you do not want to run a teaser, though the total is so low, the under is a good bet to make. Neither of these teams can score, and both defenses are playing really well.
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