NFL Week One kicks off tomorrow with the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. Travis Kelce is likely to miss this contest, but the total is still at 52.5 points, so oddsmakers and bettors are expecting points. Let’s take a dive at the three most likely candidates to hit paydirt in the Chiefs vs Lions Thursday Night Football clash.
Chiefs vs Lions – Any Time Touchdown Scorers
David Montgomery (DET) +120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Lions revamped their running back room this summer. They let Jamaal Williams walk, and they traded away De’Andre Swift. Detroit opted to use the No. 12 pick in the 2023 NFL draft on RB Jahmyr Gibbs and sign David Montgomery as a free agent from the Bears. While Gibbs is getting a ton of hype, we are focusing on Montgomery here. The Lions finished 3rd in rushing touchdowns scored last season with 23, and 17 of those were scored by former Lion Jamaal Williams. His 17 rushing touchdowns led the NFL for any individual player. Detroit needs to replace that production, and based on their styles of play, I expect Montgomery to get the goal-line nod over Gibbs.
Gibbs is viewed as more of a weapon on offense than a traditional running back. Aaron Glenn, the Lions OC, came out and said that “they are going to create a new position for Gibbs.” Hearing that leads me to believe that Gibbs will work more in the slot and out wide than in a traditional set as a running back. This leaves Montgomery to be the short-yardage back, and considering Williams led the NFL in red zone rushing attempts last season, someone needs to fill that void. Montgomery has the skill set to be that back.
Now that we have established Montgomery’s role in the offense, here’s why he should hit paydirt in the Chiefs vs Lions NFL opener. According to PFF, the Chiefs finished 18th in rushing defense last season. They are expected to be without DT Chris Jones, who had the highest PFF grade of any interior defender and the 2nd highest run defense grade of any interior defender. Kansas City lacks depth at DT, so this loss is massive, especially considering the Chiefs’ backups both posted very poor PFF grades. Given his expected role, his skillset, and the Chiefs’ lack of interior run stuffers, there is a ton of value in backing Montgomery to find the end zone at +120 on Thursday.
Josh Reynolds (DET) +380 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Reynolds was a Lion last year, so we know what to expect with his role in the offense. He is their outside threat, and going against this Chiefs secondary, he should be able to have an impact on the game, specifically in the red zone. If Detroit opts to throw it instead of run it, Reynolds is their big-bodied target. Reynolds had 11 targets in the red zone in 2022, and that accounted for 19.6% of his entire target share last season. While he is not their No. 1 option outside of the red zone, I anticipate the Lions moving the football on the Cheifs without Chris Jones, so Detroit should get a few chances in the red zone.
Noah Gray (KC) +210 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
When the announcement was made that Travis Kelce is likely to miss this game, the total of the Chiefs vs Lions dropped from 55 to 52.5. This is understandable. However, while Kelce is one of the best TEs in NFL history, Kansas City still has backups who can run the same plays as Kelce, and Noah Gray should be that guy. Gray had one touchdown on four red zone targets last year. The guy who he is replacing (Kelce) led the NFL in red zone targets last season. With no Kelce, Gray is Kansas City’s biggest body, and Mahomes could look for him close to the goal line in passing situations.
The Chiefs have a lot of talented players across their offense, so it’s hard to predict their game plan week in and week out. No Travis Kelce in the lineup makes this task more difficult as well. Given the price and the need for a red zone passing funnel, there is a ton of value on Gray +210.
For more picks, click here.