Who will win this matchup of the Commanders vs Giants? On Sunday, the 3-3 Washington Commanders head into MetLife Stadium to take on the 1-5 New York Giants. The Commanders are 2.5-point favorites in this game, so oddsmakers are expecting a narrow win for the road team. Two of Washington’s three losses have come against very good teams, while all five of the Giants’ losses have also come against very good teams. Is New York being underrated in this matchup of the Commanders vs Giants?
Let’s dive into the Week 7 Commanders vs Giants matchup to see who has the edge in this game and who will come out victorious.
NFL Week 7 – Commanders vs Giants
Why the Commanders Will Win
On paper, Washington is the better football team. They have more talent at the skill positions, and their defensive line is pound-for-pound, one of the best in the NFL, and Sam Howell is playing at a higher level than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor. As we all know, football is not played on paper. Washington has serious edges in this game, but if they do not exploit them, the Commanders may not win this game.
The New York Giants have been getting by with a makeshift offensive line all season long, and their offensive line injuries may be worse than expected this week. New York may literally not have a single preseason stater suiting up on the offensive line. The strength of the Commanders’ defense is their defensive line, and Washington tends to rush four and try to get pressure without blitzing. If the Commanders’ defensive line can control the line of scrimmage, it is really hard to see New York having any success on offense. Pressure leads to bad throws and turnovers, and if Washington is able to get sacks, stop the ground game, and force fumbles or interceptions, the Commanders will be in a good spot.
So far this season, outside of the outlier Week 5 matchup against the Bears, Washington has taken care of business and beaten the teams they are supposed to beat. Though Weeks 1 and 2 were not easy wins, Washington took care of the Broncos and Cardinals. After getting destroyed by the Bills, who have a history of destroying young QBs, Washington played a great game against Philly. Then, Washington lost to the Bears and beat the Falcons. The Bears game was an outlier as Washington came off OT before heading into that game, which gave them a major disadvantage.
In this matchup, Washington has the talent and health advantage on both sides of the ball. Commanders fans will be disheartened if they cannot beat the Giants on the road this weekend.
Why the Giants Will Win
New York is 1-5, and their only win has come against one of the worst teams in the NFL. However, their five losses have come against some of the best teams in the NFL. Though New York did not perform great in any of those games, they are battle-tested, and the Commanders are easily the second-worst team they will play. Tyrod Taylor is not a major downgrade from Daniel Jones by any means, so even if Jones is out, New York will still have a chance to give their best effort on Sunday.
With that being said, Washington struggles with mobile QBs, and Jones has been great against Washington in his career. New York is 6-3-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their L10 meetings with Washington. This Giants team understands how to play the Commanders, and Washington’s head coach has not been able to get the Commanders ready to play the Giants over the last three years.
Despite their record, the Giants’ defense has played really well this season. New York blitzes a ton, and Washington’s offensive line is not great. If New York’s blitzes can get to Sam Howell and force him into sacks or turnovers, the Giants have a great chance of winning this game. Sam Howell is the most sacked QB in the league, and veteran DC Wink Martindale is a master at blitzing. It could be a really long day for Howell, who is essentially a rookie, and the Giants’ defense can carry them to this win.
NFL Week 7 – Commanders vs Giants – Prop Bets
Terry McLaurin, Washington, Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
It does not matter who is under center for Washington, McLaurin has done well against this Giants defense the last two seasons. McLaurin is the most targetted Commanders, and he is their best WR. New York may try to take McLaurin out of the equation, but that is easier said than done. McLaurin should be able to get open against the Giants’ defense that ranks 26th in pass DVOA and 27th in pass EPA.
NFL Week 7 – Commanders vs Giants Prediction
This is a tough game to predict. History tells us that Ron Rivera-led teams do not perform well on the road as favorites. It also tells us that New York has matched up well with Washington over the last half-decade, and they have constantly beaten them and covered the spread. We outlined the pros and cons for both teams in this game, so who will win?
Washington should win and cover the two. However, winning for Washington means winning by no more than seven points. The total in this game is 37.5, so it should be ugly. Washington -2 is a good bet, but teasing up the Giants to +8.5 could form a juicy middle, especially considering the plethora of other teaser options across the board this week.
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