The MLB postseason begins on Tuesday, October 3rd, and a handful of teams have already punched their ticket to October baseball. The Wild Card races are tight in each division, and there are some good teams that will, unfortunately, not be in the playoffs.
In this edition of our MLB power rankings, we are going to break down which teams we think will make the playoffs, which teams we expect to make noise in the playoffs, and which teams will not be playing meaningful baseball next week.
MLB Power Rankings – Playoff Teams & Playoff Hopefuls
*indicates clinched division
!indicates clinched Wild Card
No. 1 Atlanta Braves*
No. 2 Baltimore Orioles*
No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers*
No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies!
No. 5 Houston Astros
No. 6 Tampa Bay Rays!
No. 7 Milwaukee Brewers!
No. 8 Texas Rangers
No. 9 Minnesota Twins!
No. 10 Seattle Mariners
No. 11 Toronto Blue Jays
No. 12 Arizona D-Backs
No. 13 Miami Marlins
No. 14 Chicago Cubs
No. 15 Cincinnati Reds
No. 16 San Diego Padres
MLB Power Rankings – Locks for October Baseball
No. 1 Atlanta Braves
No. 2 Baltimore Orioles
No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies
No. 6 Tampa Bay Rays
No. 7 Milwaukee Brewers
No. 9 Minnesota Twins
As it stands right now, the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles have byes in the first round. Whoever wins the AL West will join them, but we will get to that crazy race shortly. As you can see by the rankings, we agree that these teams are the three best teams in baseball, and all of these teams are live for a World Series run. If I had to choose one concern for these teams, coincidentally, the pitching on these three teams concerns me. Besides Spencer Strider, the Braves do not have another pitcher who I trust to win a big game. The Orioles may not have a single pitcher who could be trusted to win 1-2 starts in a seven-game series. Lastly, the Dodgers have admitted that they are going to do a lot of weird things with their starters and bullpen because their pitching depth is lacking, and they are relying on a ton of young arms.
These teams can mash with the best of them and, don’t get me wrong, have serviceable arms in the bullpen and in their rotations, but in the postseason, you need a starter who says. “F-it, I’m winning this game.”. I am not sure if any of these teams have one of those guys, and none of them have two. Maybe Strider is that guy for Atlanta, Bradish for Baltimore, and Miller for Los Angeles, but this is something to keep in mind for the stretch run.
The Phillies, Rays, Twins, and Brewers will be playing in the Wild Card round, and while these teams are flawed, these teams are also not to be messed with. The Phillies are just as hot as they were last season when they made a run, and their combination of pitching and offense cannot be taken lightly. The Rays just win. They trot out lineups without their best players, and they are still liable to put up seven runs in a game. Not to mention their bullpen is on fire, and even with the injuries, they have a good rotation.
The Twins and Brewers are both good teams. Minnesota has a great staff, but their strikeouts may doom them. If they cannot make contact in key situations, this could end poorly. Putting the ball in play is as important as it gets, and if the Twins cannot do that, they may not see success. Milwaukee is unique. They have some studs at the top of their rotation, their contact rate has exploded in the 2nd half of the season, and they play great defense. While they do not have anyone on offense who inspires true fear, this is a solid baseball team that does not have too many glaring holes.
Long story short, the teams that have already clinched are all sound in almost every aspect of the game. This should be a hell of a postseason.
MLB Power Rankings – AL West Teams
No. 5 Houston Astros
No. 8 Texas Rangers
No. 10 Seattle Mariners
At the time of writing this, TEX holds a 2.5-game lead in the AL West with five games to go
One of these teams is not going to make the playoffs, and that’s just unfortunate. It’s not like any of these teams are getting screwed out of a spot – while the argument can be made that all three of these teams are better than the Twins, the Twins are still good. With that being said, these three teams are all really good, and it is sad that one of them will probably not make it. One team will win the West, and the other two will need to pass Toronto, which has a 1.5-game lead at the moment.
The Astros and Mariners are finishing a three-game set. At the moment, they are tied 1-1. If Houston wins on 9/27, they will take a 1.5-game lead in the Wild Card. If Seattle wins, they take a .5-game lead in the Wild Card. Houston ends their season with a game in Seattle, then three games in Arizona. After Seattle plays Houston at home, they welcome the Rangers for a four-game set. This is where things get very, very interesting.
There are too many scenarios here that it’s hard to map out how this will play out. In a perfect world for these teams, Houston wins out, Seattle and Texas split their series, and Toronto drops their final five games of the season. If that happens, the entire AL West is happy. If not, one team will be on the outside looking in. We believe Houston will win tonight and get in, but that’s just a belief. These teams are all great. Seattle has the best pitching, Houston has the best all-around roster, and Texas has a scary lineup. What a race.
MLB Power Rankings – Wild Card Hopefuls
No. 11 Toronto Blue Jays
No. 12 Arizona D-Backs
No. 13 Miami Marlins
No. 14 Chicago Cubs
No. 15 Cincinnati Reds
No. 16 San Diego Padres
The Blue Jays and the D-Backs currently hold the No. 2 Wild Card spot in their respective divisions. There are things to like about these teams, and there are serious concerns these teams present. On paper, the Blue Jays look great. They have studs in their lineup, they have a few reliable starters, and their bullpen arms are above average. However, if you’ve followed Toronto all season and in past seasons, this team is hard to trust in big spots. In fact, I would not be shocked if this team somehow fumbled their current lead with five games to go. As for Arizona, the D-Backs bullpen is terrible, and they only have a single reliable starter. This team is a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild, so they deserve credit, but if they do make the playoffs, they will be sizable underdogs to whomever they play.
The Marlins, Cubs, Reds, and Padres are all fighting to pass the D-Backs or secure the final NL Wild Card spot. The Padres are 4.5 games back with five to play, so they need too many things to go right, so we can cross off those disappointments with ease. The Marlins have a tough break. They went in on getting talent to make a push, but two of their three best pitchers got hurt and will not be back for a stretch run. This Miami team had the pitching to make some noise, so this sucks. With that being said, they are also a year early in their rebuild, so this is encouraging for this team moving forward.
Last but certainly not least, the Cubs and Reds are in an intense battle. The Cubs currently hold the final spot, and the Reds are 1.5 games back. Cincinnati won last night, and the Cubs blew a lead. Now, to be clear, neither of these teams is going to make serious noise. These teams do not have the starting pitching or the bullpen to make a serious push. If I had to make a bet, I think Miami would end up taking the final Wild Card spot.
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