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MLB Player Props – Best Bets for Wednesday, April 12th

Tuesday featured some fireworks in the MLB, and Wednesday should be another fun day of baseball. All 30 teams are playing, there are games from 12:30 p.m. ET through 9:45 p.m., so let’s break down the best player prop bets for today’s slate.

MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets

Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 (BetMGM)

Jeremy Pena and the Astros have a great matchup today against Rich Hill, the veteran lefty for the Pirates. Rich Hill has allowed eight extra-base hits in nine innings of work so far this season. Hill ranks in the 44% percentile for hard-hit balls, the 15th in exit velocity, and the 1st in barrel percentage. A lot of the damage done against Hill is by right-handed batters, so Pena certainly fits that bill today.

Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 Strikeouts -170 (DraftKings)

There was a time in his career when Flaherty was a huge strikeout pitcher, but due to injuries and other various factors, Flaherty is no longer that pitcher. He currently is in the 33rd percentile for whiff percentage and the 2nd for chase rate. To make matters worse, he is in the 20th percentile for K rate through two starts. Flaherty has just seven Ks in 10 innings of work this season, and now oddsmakers are asking him to get five against a Rockies lineup that is 26th in K rate at home and 19th in K rate against right-handed pitching. I do not expect a throwback Flaherty start today at Coors.

Spencer Strider Under 9.5 Strikeouts -130 (BetMGM)

Spencer Strider is an incredible pitcher, but asking him to fan 10 batters each time he takes the rubber is a little ridiculous. Yes, he is in the 88th percentile for whiff rate and the 94th percentile for K rate, but he is only in the 27th percentile for chase rate. Strider has 18 strikeouts through two starts and 11 total innings of work. The Reds are 13th in strikeout rate on the road and 8th vs righties, so it seems like a great matchup for Strider, but it is certainly asking for too much.

Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts +115 (DraftKings)
Hunter Greene has all the talent in the world, but his inability to command the strike zone has not allowed him to blossom into the stud player he has shown he can be. Is it time to ring the alarm? No, it is not, and I think he has a great outing against the Braves today. Atlanta only has a 22.4% K rate against righties, but their K rate increases to 24.6% at home. The Braves have done well against Greene in 15 plate appearances against him, but in a prove-it type game for Greene, I think he bounces back and has a great start.

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