Inclement weather is supposed to hit the northeast, and as a result, four games are canceled for today’s slate. We have six games to work with today, and it still should be a great day of baseball. Where is there value in the player prop market today? Let’s dive in.
MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets
Charlie Blackmon to hit a home run +750 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The Rockies have their home opener today, and I expect there to be fireworks at Coors Field right away. Josiah Gray takes the mound for Washington, and one of his biggest issues last season was allowing home runs on the road to lefties. He had a 2.53 HR/9 on the road and a 2.81 HR/9 on the road against left-handed batters. Blackmon has a 90.5 exit velocity so far this season, and while his launch angle is low, this is an ideal matchup for Blackmon to go yard.
Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Strikeouts -122 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Freeland is not an elite K pitcher by any means, but he has a decent matchup against the Nationals. Freeland has a 19.6% K rate to start the season, and ther Nationals have a few every day starters with K rates well over 20%. In one start against Washington last season, Freeland had just two Ks, but that was before Washington traded away their best players and went full tank mode. Freeland shutting the door on four batters today doesn’t seem like too tall of a task for the veteran.
Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
When Merrill Kelly faces the Dodgers, the resilts are ugly. He is 0-9 in his career against Los Angeles and he has a 5.64 ERA. However, when he pitches agaisnt Los Angeles in Arizona, Kelly is a much better pitcher. The last two times he faced the Dodhger at home he had five Ks and eight Ks in those two games last season. The Dodghers have struck out the third most times to right handed pitching, so this is a good matchup for Kelly tonight at home.
MLB Player Props – Best Same Game Parlay
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago White Sox +929
Looking at this matchup, it seems like the White Sox may be in for a big day against the Giants. In his career, Luis Robert Jr. has a 209 wRC+ at home agaisnt left handed pitching. Lance Lynn looks to be in great shape after the World Baseball classic and 6 strikeout opening apperance against the Astros. Not to mention, the Giants have struck out the second most of any team so far this season against righties. Yoan Moncada struggled mightly last season, but the switch hitter is off to a scorching start with 11 hits in 26 plate apperances so far this season.