Today kicks off the second week of the MLB season after an electric first weekend of MLB action. With another full 15-game slate, there are a lot of opportunities to attack the board through MLB player props.
We are on the fourth game of the season for most teams and the fifth game for the rest, so we are deep in each team’s rotation. This becomes a great opportunity to capitalize on which of these back-end pitchers we expect to do well this season and which we think are sitting at the No. 4 or 5 spot in the rotation for a reason.
Where is there value in the MLB player props markets today? Let’s take a look at some props that stick out and are worth betting on.
MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets
Michael Kopech Under 5.5 Strikeouts -111 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Kopech is not a huge strikeout guy, so seeing his line all the way up to 5.5 shocked me a little. His 23.7% K% is above the Major League average, but last season he had just a 7.92 K/9 after posting a 13.37 K/9 in 2021. This number could mean the books are assuming a bounceback from Kopech, who had a very underwhelming 2022 after a great 2021. Though the Giants average 13 Ks a game through three, with 39 of their 42 total Ks being against right-handed pitching, I am not sure Kopech will make it too deep into this game. He had a 4.88 xFIP at home last season in 68.2 innings pitched, good for 10th worst in all of baseball.
James Kaprielian Under 3.5 Strikeouts -103 (BetRivers)
Though the number seems low, this look is an easy bet to make. Kaprielian had a 19.0% K% last season, which is well lower than the MLB average, and he had a 6.58 K/9. In two starts against Cleveland last season, he had just two and three strikeouts in those two games. Not to mention, he had the highest xFIP at home in all of the MLB, so there is no guarantee he will even make it deep into this ball game. He only bested this number in five of his 11 home starts last season.
Zach Plesac Under 4.5 Strikeouts -136 (BetRivers)
Though he had a higher K% on the road last season, Plesac should not be in a position to mow down batters this year. Plesac had a 17.8% K% and a 6.85 K/9 last season. He only had five or more Ks in 9 of 23 starts last season, and in his one start vs Oakland, he had just two strikeouts. The A’s have struck out just 16 times vs righties this season, and they did not strike out a ton last year.
MLB Player Props – Best Same Game Parlay
Mets @ Brewers +586
Carrasco has a 29.6% K% against the Brewers, and the Brewers were middle of the pack against right-handed pitching last season. The Mets normally do well against righties, and they do not strike out a ton, but Peralta has a 35.6% K% against the Mets in his appearances against them. Willy Adames owns Carrasco – he is 7-9 against him. Lastly, Alonso is the heart of this Mets’ offense, and he has a double of Peralta already in his career.