Easter Sunday was full of family, friends, egg hunts, and of course, a full 15-game slate of MLB action. Today is a new week, with teams beginning new matchups against new teams, so we should be in for another exciting day of baseball.
Where is there value in the MLB player props markets today? Let’s take a look.
MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets
Andrew Heaney Under 6.5 Strikeouts -105 (BetMGM)
On paper, Heaney seems like a candidate to go over his strikeout total today against the Royals. Kansas City has a 31.4% K rate against lefties so far this season, and Heaney had a 35.5% K rate last year, which was well above the MLB average. However, Heaney is no longer on the Dodgers nor part of their fantastic pitchers’ support system. In his first start as a Ranger, Heaney allowed seven runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings of work against the Orioles. He did fan two batters in those 2.2 innings, but Baltimore came into that game expecting to have troubles with left-handed pitching as well. Kansas City has a 95 wRC+ against lefties, which is good for 18th in the MLB. I believe Kansas City can fend off Heaney from striking out seven batters.
Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts -105 (BetMGM)
Yu Darvish has been a strikeout pitcher throughout his career, but it is fair to wonder if the 36-year-old is losing some steam. In his first start against the Braves, who have a 22.1% K rate against right-handed pitching so far this season, Darvish only fanned three through five innings of work. Today, he goes against a Mets’ lineup that has an 18.1% K rate against righties. It feels like a lot to ask for from Davish to strike out six, so at -105, the under definitely has more value.
Max Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts -111 (Caesars Sportsbook)
It has not been a great start to the season for Max Scherzer, but I refuse to believe he just forgot how to pitch. In Scherzer’s first start against Miami, he had six strikeouts, and in his 2nd against Milwaukee, he had just two. However, in his career, Scherzer has a 30.4% K rate against this Padres lineup. Also, San Diego has a 23.6% K rate as a team this season, so they are striking out at an above-average rate against right-handed pitching. I’ll gladly bet on a Scherzer bounceback at an affordable price.
MLB Player Props – Best Same Game Parlay
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets +983
We already have two props locked in for this game, so we are going to build this same game parlay around these players. We already discussed why we like Darvish to go under this number and Scherzer to go over, so we are going to beef up Scherzer’s strikeout line to 8+ for a higher payout. We are rounding out this same game parlay with Eduardo Escobar of the Mets to have two+ total bases. Escobar has a .302 expected batting average against Darvish in 20 at-bats against the veteran right-hander. I can see Escobar adding another double to his resume against Darvish or even two singles today.