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MLB Player Props – Best Bets for 9/28

Thursday cards are always smaller for baseball, but that does not mean there is no value on the board. What are the best NFL player props to bet on today? Let’s take a look at our favorite NFL player props for Thursday, 9/28.

MLB Player Props – Best Bets

Touki Toussiant Under 4.5 Strikeouts +102 (FanDuel)

Throughout the course of an MLB season, teams go through slumps. Slumps translate to not being able to score runs or not being able to hit the ball at all. After a mild August, the contact-heavy Diamondbacks have gone back to being one of the lowest K-rate teams in baseball against righties as they have been all season long. Toussiant has good stuff, but from a percentile rankings perspective, he has work to do. He is in the 11th percentile for chase rate, the 45th for whiff%, and the 40th for K%. In September, Arizona has a 19.7% K rate against righties, and over the last two weeks, that number dropped to 17.8%.

What makes this matchup even more appealing is Toussiant’s splits. He rings up righties at a 27% clip, but he only Ks lefties at a 17.5% clip. Last night, Arizona trotted out six left-handed bats. If they do the same again, Toussiant should struggle in this matchup. Considering we have a low K-rate pitcher with splits that cannot be ignored against a low K-rate team that can exploit those splits, this is a great bet to make.

Luis Medina Over 4.5 Strikeouts -120 (MGM)

Medina is not a huge strikeout pitcher, but he averages just under a K an inning, so it’s not like he does not have strikeout stuff. He is more of a whiff pitcher, and the Twins are a whiff-heavy team. In September, the Twins are 10th in K rate against right-handed pitchers, they are 12th in the last two weeks, and they are 14th in swinging strike rate. However, over the course of the season, the Twins are the highest K-rate and whiff rate team in baseball. They also have one of the lowest contact rates.

Another reason why Medina is in such a great spot is because the Twins and day games do not get along. Minnesota is first in the MLB in strikeouts during the day, and they are by a wide margin. In 67 games during the day, the Twins have struck out 704 times. In comparison, the No. 2 team has played 66 day games, and they have 64 fewer Ks than the Twins. We are anticipating that this will keep up, making Medina one of the best MLB player props to lock in today.

Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts +124 (FanDuel)

Luzardo is one of the better K pitchers in baseball, but he has not been mowing down batters lately. He has a great opportunity to do so today against the Mets on the road. Luzardo’s K rate dips on the road, but today, he should be able to take advantage of a Mets team that has already packed their bags for vacation. Luzardo is in the 77th percentile for chase rate, the 83rd for whiff%, and the 80th for K rate. Luzardo should be able to power the Marlins to a much-needed win against the Mets tonight at Citi Field.

For MLB picks and analysis, click here.