With so few games left in the season, betting MLB moneylines is a crap shoot. The teams who need to win do not win, and the teams who have nothing to play for end up playing spoiler often. Instead of worrying about who is going to win, let’s focus on some prop bets around the MLB.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets
Emmet Sheehan Over 4.5 Strikeouts -113 @ Colorado Rockies
Sheehan, a rookie, will be making his 2nd start at Coors Field this season. In his first start, he struck out five in five innings with 88 pitches. In the month of September, the Rockies have a 27.2% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. Sheehan, in the 2nd half of this season, is striking out batters at a 26.6% rate. Sheehan has a swinging strike rate, chase rate, and contact rate all above the league average, and the Rockies currently have the lowest contact rate and the highest swinging strike rate of all teams in September. Sheehan should be able to go over this modest number with ease if he gets a normal pitch count.
Griffin Canning Under 6.5 Strikeouts -134 vs. Texas Rangers
The Rangers need wins, and while Canning has been a good strikeout pitcher this season, the Rangers have a good matchup here. Canning has had strikeout success against teams with high K rates, but teams who are more disciplined do well against Canning. Texas has a 22.8% K rate against righties in the last two weeks, and that number dropped to 21.8% in September. Canning only has a 23.6% K rate against left-handed batters, and Texas could stack up to five lefties in their lineup tonight. Not to mention, Texas is in the bottom 3rd in swinging strike rate and the upper third in contact rate, which are two ways Canning gets most of his Ks. He should comfortably go under this number.
Darius Vines Under 3.5 Strikeouts -127 vs. Chicago Cubs
Darius Vines is a rookie, and he has gone over this number one time in his career – in his first start against the Rockies. Vines rang up five in that game, and he has not sniffed three in his other starts. The Rockies and Cubs offenses are polar opposites. The Rockies have the 4th highest K rate against righties in the last two weeks, while the Cubs have the lowest. In September, the Cubs have the lowest swinging strike rate while the Rockies have the highest. The Cubs are 2nd in contact rate and first in O-contact rate. Vines has had success striking out lefties, but the Cubs lefties are not major K hitters. Vines was never a big strikeout pitcher in AAA, and his changeup is his K pitch. The Cubs should have no problem hitting a rookie with a high contact rate.
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