On Sunday, the Washington Commanders host the Miami Dolphins for Week 13 of the NFL season. These two teams are headed in completely different directions. Miami is looking to lock in the AFC East crown, while the Commanders are in last place in the NFC East and want as high of a draft pick as possible. This will be the first game for Washington with Ron Rivera calling defensive plays.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
Dolphins vs Commanders – Tech Angle
Miami is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Washington is 4-8 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. These teams are 3-3 SU in their L6 meetings, but Miami is 3-2-1 ATS. Those games went 5-1 to the under. Miami is 3-8 SU in their L11 road games, and 14 of their L17 games between NFC East foes went under the total. Six of the L7 games between these two teams have gone under.
Miami is the top offensive team in the NFL this season, and the Commanders have a bottom-three defense in the NFL. Will the trend of Miami playing poorly on the road continue this week? Or is this a prime spot for Miami’s offense to explode against a terrible defense? Also, will Washington’s offense be able to score on this new and improved Dolphins’ defense?
Dolphins vs Commanders – Analysis
In the NFL’s first Black Friday game, the Dolphins entered MetLife Stadium and steamrolled the Jets. New York had a pick-six and another interception before halftime, and it looked like this game would be close. Instead, the Jets threw a Hail Mary attempt, and Miami took it 99 yards for a touchdown before halftime. Miami ended the day with 395 yards of offense, and they held the Jets to 159 total yards of offense.
The Commanders went into Arlington and were destroyed 45-10 by the Cowboys, and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was subsequently fired. There is not much to take away from this game. Washington was terrible in their play calling, execution, game management, and overall play, and they were destroyed. Now, Ron Rivera will be calling defensive plays, and his first test is this Miami offense. While the Commanders’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and the Dolphins offense is one of the best, we like the under here.
Miami is 3-8 SU in their L11 road games, and 14 of their L17 games between NFC East foes went under the total. Six of the L7 games between these two teams have gone under. The Dolphins offense is not as good on the road, and their defense is much improved. We do not expect the Commanders to do their share in hitting this over, and Miami’s offense should not go crazy against this team. Yes, we expect them to have a good day, but the market has overadjusted, showing up value on under 50.5
Dolphins vs Commanders – Prediction
As you just read, our numbers show value on the under, so we like the under in this matchup. It opened at 50, and it is still hovering in that area. We do not expect Washington to have a ton of success on offense, and Miami is a wagon but they play down on the road. This offense will do its share and score points, but the Commanders will not help them hit the over.
Play: Under 50.5
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