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2023 NFL Most Valuable Player Odds and Best Bets

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens

The NFL season begins on Thursday with the 2023 Hall of Fame game, and the regular season kicks off in a little over the month. Futures markets have been available for a while, and with the season so close, now is a great time to start placing your first round of bets on the NFL’s MVP award.

When it comes to futures markets, you do not need to bet on just one player, and you should also keep adding bets throughout the season. Think of futures bets like building a portfolio. If you have four players to win at 20-1, and one of your four players wins, you are profiting a lot even though you just lost three other bets.

Here’s a look at 2023 NFL Most Valuable Player odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and discuss some good bets to make now.

2023 NFL Most Valuable Player Odds

The MVP award has turned into a QB-only award, so here are the top QB candidates to win the 2023 NFL MVP award via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes +700
Joe Burrow +750
Josh Allen +800
Jalen Hurts +1100
Justin Herbert +1300
Lamar Jackson +1500
Trevor Lawrence +1500
Aaron Rodgers +1600
Tua Tagovailoa +2200
Justin Fields +2000
Dak Prescott +2500
Deshaun Watson +3000
Jared Goff +4000
Geno Smith +4000
Russell Wilson +4500
Derek Carr +5000
Brock Purdy +5000
Kirk Cousins +5000
Jordan Love +6000
Matthew Stafford +6000

2023 NFL Most Valuable Player – The Favorites

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs +700

Mahomes is a two-time MVP, he’s the best QB in the league, and to no one’s surprise, he is the favorite to win the MVP award again. After losing Tyreek Hill last season, many pundits expected the Chiefs to struggle, but instead, Mahomes lead the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes, yards per game, and QBR. Oh, yeah, and the Chiefs were the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they won the Super Bowl. Barring injury, Mahomes will be in the MVP race for the entirety of the season as the Chiefs’ weapons are great, his offensive line is one of the better units in football, he has one of the best offensive coaches in the league, and simply put, he is the best player in the NFL.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals +750

Burrow hurt his calf in training camp, and at the moment, we have no update on how severely he is injured and if he will be missing significant time. Assuming Burrow misses a few games, it will be much more difficult for him to win MVP. Say he misses no game or just one or two; it’s not hard to see why Burrow is the second favorite to win the award. The Bengals are loaded at each skill position, and Burrow is the straw that stirs the drink. In 16 games last season, Burrwo finished with 4,475 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, and a 7.4 Y/A, and he led the Bengals to an AFC North crown.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills +800

Allen has quickly become a fan favorite and a media darling, but dare I say he’s overrated? He finished 3rd in MVP voting last season after amassing 4,283 passing yards, recording 42 total touchdowns, and orchestrating four game-winning drives. However, Allen had 14 interceptions, he completed just 63.3% of his passes, and he may not even be the best QB in his division anymore with Rodgers going to the Jets. Buffalo’s weapons outside of Diggs leave a lot to be desired, so of all the favorites to win this award, I am the lowest on Allen of the bunch.

2023 NFL Most Valuable Player – Value Bets

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets +1600

This is a very popular pick, and while in the NFL, not many things go exactly as you’d expect them to, I believe the Jets will be good this season, and Rodgers will be the reason why. Despite having a truly poor season last year, I am not ready to count out one of the best QBs in the history of the sport. It seemed as if he was simply fed up with all things Packers, and now that he is exactly where he wants to be, I think Rodgers can turn it on again. Unless the Jets’ offensive line lets him down, or father time did catch up to him, Rodgers should be poised for a great season.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys +2500

The NFC is wide open, and the Cowboys have the third-best odds to win the conference. Yes, they have a great defense, but if Dallas wins the NFC East and takes home the No. 1 spot in the conference, it’s gotta be because of Dak, right? Dak missed five games last season and finished with a career-high in interceptions, his second-lowest Y/A, his highest INT%, and his highest bad throw%. However, according to PFF, Dak’s 4% turnover-worthy play rate was better than 11 other QBs, and he was the least lucky QB in terms of turnovers. Considering turnover regression, the Cowboys adding Brandin Cooks and Dallas’ sporting one of the better OLs in football, Dak could be in the MVP conversation.

2023 NFL Most Valuable Player – Long Shot Bet

Deshawn Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns +3000

Watson looked bad last season, but a lot of that can be attributed to rust and the fact that Watson played two of his six games in terrible weather. Watson has never gotten an MVP vote, but this is the best situation for him. The Browns have weapons on the outside, a great run game, and a solid offensive line. In his last full season in 2020, Watson passed for 4,823 yards, and he had 33 TDs to seven interceptions with an 8.9 Y/A. If the Browns make some noise this season, Watson probably came alive to help bolster this team.

Past NFL MVP Winners

Last 10 Years (2013-2022)

2022-23 – Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (+700)
2021-22 – Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (+800)
2020-21 – Green Bay Aaron Rodgers (+3000)
2019-20 – Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (+4000)
2018-19 – Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+3500)
2017-18 – New England QB Tom Brady (+400)
2016-17 – Atlanta QB Matt Ryan (+7500)
2015-16 – Carolina QB Cam Newton (+5100)
2014-15 – Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (+650)
2013-14 – Denver QB Peyton Manning (+600)

2023 Football GoldSheet

GoldSheet’s three primary products – The Football GoldSheet, Extra, and Confidential Kickoff – are being combined into one product for the 2023-24 football season. The Football GoldSheet features a writeup on EVERY college football and NFL game for the upcoming week, along with some basic stats, power ratings, strength of schedule, and week-by-week stat logs. Confidential Kickoff features a head-to-head matchup look at the advanced stat logs, complete with turnover differentials, yards per point, and some more in-depth numbers. Extra was created for the technical handicapper that enjoys historical trends and angles. We’ll dip into the database to share some notable trends as they pop up throughout the season.

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