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TGS SPECIAL REPORT...BUBBLE UPDATE AND "OFF" CONFERENCE NCAA RESULTS!
by Bruce Marshall, Goldsheet.com Editor


There hadn't been a lot of movement on the NCAA bubble entering Thursday's action, though we expect lots of moving parts over the next few days as Big 12 and SEC action, in particular, swing into gear.

Through Wednesday's games, about the only new speculation was if Boise State put itself into some jeopardy by losing Wednesday's Mountain West quarterfinal vs. San Diego State. Though we don't believe that loss knocks the Broncos out of the field, it does put them in a bit more jeopardy in case the bubble gets further "squeezed" over the weekend if an unexpected team surges through conference tourney action to claim an automatic bid. About the only possible "bubble thief" in early tourney action has been Western Kentucky from the Sun Belt, which tossed heavy Belt favorite Middle Tennessee into the at-large pool. We'll see what transpires in the next few days as we update developments each day until Selection Sunday

After Wednesday's games, here's how our projected seeds (1 thru 16) set up for the Big Dance as of AM, Thursday, March 14...*-signifies team has already qualified as of March 14.

No. 1 seeds...Duke, Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga*.

No. 2 seeds...Kansas, Georgetown, Miami-Florida, Michigan State.

No. 3 seeds...Ohio State, Michigan, New Mexico, Marquette.

No. 4 seeds...Florida, Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State.

No. 5 seeds...Syracuse, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis.

No. 6 seeds...Notre Dame, UNLV, Creighton*, Colorado State.

No. 7 seeds...Butler, North Carolina, Wisconsin, NC State.

No. 8 seeds...Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Missouri, Wichita State.

No. 9 seeds...Illinois, San Diego State, California, Oregon.

No. 10 seeds...Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Colorado.

No. 11 seeds...Belmont*, Villanova, Temple, La Salle, Virginia.

No. 12 seeds...Boise State, Tennessee, Davidson*, Minnesota, Ole Miss.

No. 13 seeds...Ohio, Valparaiso*, Stephen F. Austin, Denver.

No. 14 seeds...Harvard*, Bucknell*, South Dakota State*, Montana.

No. 15 seeds...Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Long Beach State, James Madison*.

No. 16 seeds...Long Island*, Western Kentucky, Vermont, Liberty*, Texas Southern, Savannah State.

Last four in...Minnesota, Ole Miss, La Salle, Virginia.

First four out...Iowa State, Iowa, Middle Tennessee, Alabama.

Next four out...Baylor, Southern Miss, Akron, Maryland.

"OFF" CONFERENCE NCAA TOURNEY RESULTS


Following are straight-up and pointspread results for all of the "off" conferences in NCAA Tournament play since 1994. While straight-up wins are certainly not common for these lower-echelon conference reps in NCAA action, they are not unheard of, either, as the best of this lot has been able to cause real damage in recent years. Some of those who have famously succeeded in sub-regionals over the past decade include Morehead State, Siena, Winthrop, Bucknell, Vermont, Northwestern State, Montana, Lehigh, and Norfolk State.

Some of these lower-rung leagues have definitely done better than others vs. the pointspread in NCAA play. Northeast entries are 7-2-1 vs. the line in their last ten Big Dance appearances (even though Long Island failed to cover last year vs. Michigan State), while Southern Conference teams are 16-7-1 vs. the line in NCAA play since '94 (Davidson "pushing" vs. Louisville last term). Meanwhile, America East reps have been steady spread losers (7-16) in the Dance since '94. "Ws" and "Ls" below reflect the pointspread result for the "off" team in the matchup:

AMERICA EAST

(Straight-up record 3-20 since 1994, pointspread record 7-16)

1994-Drexel (+9½) 39-61 L vs. Temple 39-61

1995-Drexel (+16) 49-73 L vs. Ok. State

1996-Drexel (+6) 75-63 W vs. Memphis

Drexel (+6) 58-69 L vs. Syracuse

1997-Bucknell (+7½) 52-81 L vs. Tulsa

1998-Delaware (+16) 56-95 L vs. Purdue

1999-Delaware (+10½) 52-62 W vs. Tennessee

2000-Hofstra (+12½) 66-86 L vs. Ok. State

2001-Hofstra (+7) 48-61 L vs. UCLA

2002-Boston U. (+24) 52-90 L vs. Cincinnati

2003-Vermont (+25½) 51-80 L vs. Arizona

2004-Vermont (+20) 53-70 W vs. UConn

2005-Vermont (+20) 60-57 (OT) W vs. Syracuse

Vermont (+8½) 61-72 L vs. Michigan State

2006-Albany (+21½) 59-72 W vs. UConn

2007-Albany (+8½) 57-84 L vs. Virginia

2008-UM-Baltimore County (+16½) 47-66 L vs. Georgetown

2009-Binghamton (+22) 62-86 L vs. Duke

2010-Vermont (+16) 56-79 L vs. Syracuse

2011-Boston U (+22½) 53-72 W vs. Kansas

2012-Vermont (-4) 71-59 W play-in vs. Lamar

Vermont (+16) 58-77 L vs. North Carolina.


ATLANTIC SUN (SUR 2-20, PSR 10-11-1)

1994-Charleston (+9) 58-68 L vs. Wake Forest

Central Florida (+23½) 67-98 L vs. Purdue 67-98

1995-Florida International (+31) 56-92 L vs. UCLA

1996-Central Florida (+30) 70-92 W vs. UMass

1997-Charleston (+6½) 75-66 W vs. Maryland,

Charleston (+5½) 69-73 W vs. Arizona

1998-Charleston (+14) 57-67 W vs. Stanford

1999 Samford (+15½) 43-69 L vs. St. John's

2000-Samford (+13½) 65-79 L vs. Syracuse

2001-Georgia State (+7½) 50-49 W vs. Wisconsin,

Georgia State (+14) 60-79 L vs. Maryland

2002-Florida Atlantic (+18) 78-86 W vs. Alabama

2003-Troy State (+12) 59-71 N vs. Xavier

2004-Central Florida (+14) 44-53 W Pittsburgh

2005-Central Florida (+18) 71-77 W vs. UConn

2006-Belmont (+24) 44-78 L vs. UCLA

2007-Belmont (+16½) 55-80 L vs. Georgetown

2008-Belmont (+20) 70-71 W vs. Duke

2009-East Tennessee State (+20) 62-72 W vs. Pitt

2010-East Tennessee State (+19) 71-100 L vs. Kentucky

2011-Belmont (+4) 58-72 L vs. Wisconsin

2012-Belmont (+3½) 59-74 L vs. Georgetown.

Note: known as Trans-America Conference until 2001.


BIG SKY (SUR 3-19, PSR 10-11-1)

1994-Boise State (+18) 58-67 W vs. Louisville

1995-Weber State (+15) 79-72 W vs. Michigan State,

Weber State (+7½) 51-53 W vs. Georgetown

1996-Montana St. (+9) 55-88 L vs. Syracuse

1997 Montana (+20½) 54-92 L vs. Kentucky

1998-Northern Arizona (+14½) 62-65 W vs. Cincinnati

1999-Weber State (+13) 76-74 W vs. North Carolina,

Weber State (+8) 72-80 OT N vs. Florida

2000-Northern Arizona (+14) 56-61 W vs. St. John's

2001-CS Northridge 75-99 L (+12½) vs. Kansas

2002-Montana (+20½) 62-81 W vs. Oregon

2003-Weber State (+6½) 74-81 L vs. Wisconsin

2004-Eastern Washington (+16½) 56-75 L vs. Oklahoma

2005-Montana (+20½) 77-88 W vs. Washington

2006-Montana +7) 87-79 W vs. Nevada,

Montana (+10½) 56-69 L vs. Boston College

2007-Weber State (+20) 42-70 L vs. UCLA

2008-Portland State (+22) 61-85 L vs. Kansas

2009-Portland State (+10½) 59-77 L vs. Xavier

2010-Montana (+9) 57-62 W vs. New Mexico

2011-Northern Colorado (+14½) 50-68 L vs. San Diego State

2012-Montana (+9) 49-73 L vs. Wisconsin.


BIG SOUTH: (SUR 3-17, PSR 8-12)

1996-UNC Greensboro (+18) 61-66 W vs. Cincinnati

1997-Charleston Southern (+18) 75-109 L vs. UCLA

1998-Radford (+31) 63-99 L vs. Duke 63-99

1999-Winthrop (+28) 41-80 L vs. Auburn

2000-Winthrop (+16½) 50-74 L vs. Oklahoma

2001-Winthrop (-2½) 67-71 L play-in vs. Northwestern State

2002-Winthrop (+33½) 37-84 L vs. Duke

2003-UNC Asheville (+1) 82-74 W play-in vs. Texas Southern,

UNC Asheville (+27½) 61-82 W vs. Texas

2004-Liberty (+24) 63-82 W vs. Saint Joseph's

2005-Winthrop (+13½) 64-74 W vs. Gonzaga

2006-Winthrop (+7) 61-63 W vs. Tennessee

2007-Winthrop (-3½) 74-64 W vs. Notre Dame,

Winthrop (+3) 61-75 L vs. Oregon

2008-Winthrop (+9½) 40-71 L vs. Washington State

2009-Radford (+25½) 58-101 L North Carolina

2010-Winthrop (-3) 44-61 L play-in vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

2011-UNC Asheville (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. UA-Little Rock,

UNC Asheville (+18) 51-74 L vs. Pittsburgh

12-UNC Asheville (15½) W 65-72 vs. Syracuse. No reps '94-95.


METRO-ATLANTIC (SUR 6-20, PSR 12-14)

1994-Loyola Md. (+24½) 55-81 L vs. Arizona

1995-St. Peter's (+22) 51-68 W vs. UMass,

Manhattan (+7½) 77-67 W vs. Oklahoma,

Manhattan (+6½) 54-64 L vs. Arizona

1996-Canisius (+13) 43-72 L vs. Utah

1997-Fairfield (+27) 74-82 W vs. North Carolina

1998-Iona (+5½) 61-63 W vs. Syracuse

1999-Siena (+7) 80-94 L Arkansas

2001-Iona (+14½) 59-74 L vs. Maryland

2001-Iona (+10½) 70-72 W vs. Ole Miss

2002-Siena (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. Alcorn State

Siena (+28½) 70-85 W vs. Maryland

2003-Manhattan (+7½) 65-76 L vs. Syracuse

2004-Manhattan (+5) 75-60 W vs. Florida,

Manhattan (+7) 80-84 W vs. Wake Forest

2005-Niagara (+12) L 67-84 vs. Oklahoma

2006-Iona (+7½) 64-80 L vs. LSU

2007-Niagara (-2½) 77-69 W play-in vs. Florida A&M,

Niagara (+19) 67-107 L vs. Kansas

2008-Siena (+6½) 83-62 W vs. Vanderbilt,

Siena (+5½) 72-84 L vs. Villanova

2009-Siena (+3) 74-72 W 2-OT vs. Ohio State,

Siena (+12) 72-79 W vs. Louisville

2010-Siena (+4') 64-72 L vs. Purdue

2011-St. Peter's (+14½) 43-65 L vs. Purdue

2012-Loyola Md. (+17½) 59-78 L vs. Ohio State.


MEAC (SUR 4-18, PSR 13-9)

1994-NC A&T (+29) 79-94 W vs. Arkansas

1995-NC A&T (+23) 47-79 L vs. Wake Forest

1996-S.C. State (+30½) 54-92 L vs. Kansas

1997-Coppin State (+18½) 78-65 W vs. South Carolina,

Coppin State (+11') 81-82 W vs. Texas

1998-S.C. State (+26½) 67-82 W vs. Kentucky

1999-Florida A&M (+46) 58-99 W vs. Duke

2000-S.C. State (+31½) 65-84 W vs. Stanford

2001-Hampton (+17½) 58-57 W vs. Iowa State,

Hampton (+13) 57-76 L vs. Georgetown

2002-Hampton (+12½) 67-78 W vs. UConn

2003-S.C. State (+27) 54-71 W vs. Oklahoma

2004-Florida A&M (+4) 72-57 W play-in vs. Lehigh,

Florida A&M (+28) 76-96 W vs. Kentucky

2005-Delaware State (+26½) 46-57 W vs. Duke

2006-Hampton (+3½) 49-71 L play-in game vs. Monmouth

2007-Florida A&M (+2½) 69-77 L play-in vs. Niagara

2008-Coppin State (+3) 60-69 L play-in vs. Mount Saint Mary's

2009-Morgan State (+16) L 54-82 vs. Oklahoma

2010-Morgan State (+16½) 50-77 L vs. West Virginia

2011-Hampton (+23) 45-87 W vs. Duke

2012-Norfolk State (+21½) 86-84 W vs. Missouri

Norfolk State (+14½) 50-84 L vs. Florida.


NORTHEAST (SUR 2-19, PSR 12-8-1)

1994-Rider (+19) 46-64 W vs. UConn

1995-Mt. St, Mary's (+31) 67-113 L vs. Kentucky

1996-Monmouth (+14) 44-68 L vs. Marquette

1997-Long Island (+13½) 91-101 W vs. Villanova

1998-FDU (+14½) 85-93 W vs. UConn

1999-Mt. St. Mary's (+26) 53-76 W vs. Michigan State

2000-Central Connecticut (+18) 78-88 W vs. Iowa State

2001-Monmouth (+35½) 52-95 L vs. Duke

2002-Central Connecticut (+15) 54-71 L vs. Pittsburgh

2003-Wagner (+20½) 61-87 L vs. Pittsburgh

2004-Monmouth (+20½) 52-85 L vs. Mississippi State

2005-Fairleigh Dickinson (+26) 55-67 W vs. Illinois

2006-Monmouth (-3½) 71-49 W play-in vs. Hampton,

Monmouth (+19½) 45-58 W vs. Villanova

2007-Central Connecticut (+21) 57-78 N vs. Ohio State

2008-Mount Saint Mary's (-3) 69-60 W play-in vs. Coppin State

Mount Saint Mary's (+25) 74-113 L vs. North Carolina

2009-Robert Morris (+17) 62-77 W vs. Michigan State

2010-Robert Morris (+17) 70-73 W (OT) vs. Villanova

2011-Long Island (+18) 87-102 W vs. North Carolina

2012-Long Island (+19) 67-89 L vs. Michigan State.


OHIO VALLEY (SUR 4-19, PSR 14-9)

1994-Tennessee State (+18½) 70-83 W vs. Kentucky

1995-Murray State (+20) 70-80 W vs. North Carolina

1996-Austin Peay (+15) 79-90 W vs. Georgia Tech

1997-Murray State (+23½) 68-71 W vs. Duke

1998-Murray State (+12½) 74-97 L vs. Rhode Island

1999-Murray State (+8) 58-72 L vs. Ohio State

2000-SE Missouri State (+12½) 61-64 W vs. LSU

2001-Eastern Illinois (+21½) 76-101 L vs. Arizona

2002-Murray State (+9) 68-85 L vs. Georgia

2003-Austin Peay (+16) 64-86 L vs. Louisville

2004-Murray State (+9) 53-72 L vs. Illinois

2005-Eastern Kentucky (+16½) 64-72 W vs. Kentucky

2006-Murray State (+11½) 65-69 W vs. North Carolina

2007-Eastern Kentucky (+27½) 65-86 W vs. North Carolina

2008-Austin Peay (+15½) 54-74 L vs. Texas

2009-Morehead State (-3) 58-43 W play-in vs. Alabama State, 58-43,

Morehead State (+21) W vs. Louisville, 54-74

2010-Murray State (+2½) 66-65 W vs. Vanderbilt,

Murray State (+4½) 52-54 W vs. Butler

2011-Morehead State (+9½) 62-61 W vs. Louisville,

Morehead State (+4) 48-65 L vs. Richmond

2012-Murray State (-5) 58-41 W vs. Colorado State

Murray State (+5) 53-62 L vs. Marquette.


PATRIOT (SUR 3-19, PSR 12-10)

1994-Navy (+20½) 53-76 L vs. Missouri

1995-Colgate (+27) 68-82 W vs. Kansas

1996-Colgate (+28) 59-68 W vs. UConn

1997-Navy (+19½) 61-75 W vs. Utah

1998-Navy (+28) 52-88 L vs. North Carolina

1999-Lafayette (+17½) 54-75 L vs. Miami Florida

2000-Lafayette (+21½) 47-73 L vs. Temple

Holy Cross (+20) 68-72 W vs. Kentucky

2002-Holy Cross (+28½) 59-70 W vs. Kansas

2003-Holy Cross (+10) 68-72 W vs. Marquette

2004-Lehigh (-4) 57-72 L play-in vs. Florida A&M

2005-Bucknell (+13½) 64-63 W vs. Kansas,

Bucknell (+8) 62-71 L vs. Wisconsin

2006-Bucknell (+5) 59-55 W vs. Arkansas,

Bucknell (+8) 56-72 L vs. Memphis

2007-Holy Cross (+7½) 51-61 L vs. Southern Illinois

2008-American (+19½) 57-72 W vs. Tennessee

2009-American (+16) 67-80 W vs. Villanova

2010-Lehigh (+25½) 74-90 W vs. Kansas

2011-Bucknell (+20) 52-81 L vs. UConn

2012-Lehigh (+12) 75-70 W vs. Duke

Lehigh (+4) 58-70 L vs. Xavier.


SOUTHERN (SUR 5-19, PSR 16-7-1)

1994-UT Chattanooga (+12) 73-102 L vs. Kansas

1995-UT Chattanooga (+16) 71-100 L vs. UConn

1996-Western Carolina (+20) 71-73 W vs. Purdue

1997-UT Chattanooga (+9) 73-70 W vs. Georgia,

UT Chattanooga (+10) 75-63 W vs. Illinois,

UT Chattanooga (+8) 65-71 W vs. Purdue

1998-Davidson (+15) 61-80 L vs. Michigan

1999-Charleston (-2) 53-62 L vs. Tulsa

2000-Appalachian State (+13½) 61-87 L vs. Ohio State

2001-UNC Greensboro (+30) 60-89 W vs. Stanford

2002-Davidson (+12½) 64-69 W vs. Ohio State

2003-East Tennessee State (+12½) 73-76 W vs. Wake Forest

2004-East Tennessee State (+9) 77-80 W vs. Cincinnati

2005-Chattanooga (+17½) 54-70 W vs. Wake Forest

2006-Davidson (+10½) 62-70 W vs. Ohio State

2007-Davidson (+7) 70-82 L vs. Maryland

2008-Davidson (-2) 82-76 W vs. Gonzaga,

Davidson (+5) 74-70 W vs. Georgetown,

Davidson (+4½) 73-56 W vs. Wisconsin,

Davidson (+9½) 57-59 W vs. Kansas

2009-Chattanooga (+20½) 47-103 L vs. UConn

2010-Wofford (+10) 49-53 W vs. Wisconsin

2011-Wofford (+8½) 66-74 W vs. BYU

2012-Davidson (+7) 62-69 N vs. Louisville.


SOUTHLAND (SUR 3-19, PSR 9-12-1)

1994-SW Texas State (+16) 60-78 L vs. UMass

1995-Nicholls State (+13') 72-96 L vs. Virginia

1996-NE Louisiana (+19½) 50-62 W vs. Wake Forest

1997-SW Texas State (+22) 46-78 L vs. Minnesota

1998-Nicholls State (+26) 60-99 L vs. Arizona

1999-UT San Antonio (+26½) 66-91 W vs. UConn

2000-Lamar (+32½) 55-82 W vs. Duke

2001-Northwestern State (+2½) 71-67 W play-in vs. Winthrop,

Northwestern State (+26½) 54-96 L vs. Illinois

2002-McNeese State (+10½) 58-70 L vs. Mississippi State

2003-Sam Houston (+19) 55-85 L vs. Florida

2004-UT San Antonio (+24) 45-71 L vs. Stanford

2005-SE Louisiana (+18½) 50-63 W vs. Oklahoma State

2006-Northwestern State (+6½) 64-63 W vs. Iowa,

Northwestern State (+8) 54-67 L vs. West Virginia

2007-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+13) 63-76 N vs. Wisconsin

2008-UT-Arlington (+25) 63-87 W vs. Memphis

2009-Stephen F. Austin (+12) 44-59 L vs. Syracuse

2010-Sam Houston State (+12½) 59-68 W vs. Baylor

2011-UT San Antonio (-3) 70-61 W play-in vs. Alabama State,

UT San Antonio (+24½) 46-75 L vs. Ohio State

2012-Lamar (+4) L play-in vs. Vermont, 71-59.


SWAC (SUR 1-18, PSR 8-11)

1994-Texas Southern (+20) 70-82 W vs. Duke

1995-Texas Southern (+18) 78-79 W vs. Arkansas

1996-Miss. Valley St. (+26) 56-93 L vs. Georgetown

1997-Jackson State (+35½) 64-78 W vs. Kansas

1998-Prairie View (+36½) 52-110 L vs. Kansas

1999-Alcorn State (+22) 57-69 W vs. Stanford

2000-Jackson State (+27½) 47-71 W vs. Arizona

2001-Alabama State (+28½) 35-69 L vs. Michigan State

2002-Alcorn State (+4½) 77-81 W play-in vs. Siena

2003-Texas Southern (-1) 74-82 L play-in vs. UNC Asheville

2004-Alabama State (+34) 61-96 L vs. Duke

2005-Alabama A&M (+6) 69-79 L play-in vs. Oakland

2006-Southern U (+24½) 54-70 W vs. Duke

2007-Jackson State (+28) 69-112 L vs. Florida

2008-Mississippi Valley State (+31½) 29-70 L vs. UCLA

2009-Alabama State (+3) 43-58 L play-in vs. Morehead State

2010-Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+3) 61-44 W play-in vs. Winthrop,

Arkansas Pine-Bluff (+14½) 44-73 L vs. Duke

2011-Alabama State (+3) 61-70 L play-in vs. UT San Antonio

2012-Mississippi Valley State (-1) 58-59 L vs. Western Kentucky.


SUMMIT (SUR 3-17, PSR 7-12-1)

1996-Valparaiso (+18) 51-90 L vs. Arizona

1997-Valparaiso (+10) 66-73 W vs. Boston College

1998-Valparaiso (+12) 70-69 W vs. Ole Miss,

Valparaiso (+7½) 83-77 OT W vs. Florida State,

Valparaiso (+8) 68-74 W vs. Rhode Island

1999-Valparaiso (+20) 60-82 L vs. Maryland

2000-Valparaiso (+25½) 38-65 L vs. Michigan State

2001-Southern Utah (+14) 65-68 W vs. Boston College

2002-Valparaiso (+7½) 68-83 L vs. Kentucky

2003-IUPUI (+26½) 64-95 L vs. Kentucky

2004-Valparaiso (+18½) 49-76 L vs. Gonzaga 49-76 L

2005-Oakland (-6) W 79-69 play-in vs. Alabama A&M

Oakland (+27½) L 68-96 vs. North Carolina

2006-Oral Roberts (+12) 78-94 L vs. Memphis

2007-Oral Roberts (+6½) 54-70 L vs. Washington State

2008-Oral Roberts (+8½) 63-82 L vs. Pittsburgh

2009-North Dakota State (+10) 74-84 N vs. Kansas

2010-Oakland (+10) L 66-89 vs. Pittsburgh

2011-Oakland (+10) 81-85 W vs. Texas

2012-South Dakota State (+7½) 60-68 L vs. Baylor.

No reps '94-95. Note: known as Mid-Continent Conference until 2007.


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