NFL Week 7 is here! We outlined how low scoring has been this season, and last week was no exception. In fact, last week was the worst regular season week for overs since 2000. Of the 14 games played last week, 13% went over. History has shown us that when overs get killed (25% or fewer overs), the week after sees decent market adjustment. Since 2000, there have been five instances where totals went over at a 50% or higher clip the week after going 25% or lower. There were 12 instances of this, so while it absolutely does not mean we are in for overs galore this week, we should certainly see more than 25% overs this week.
So, with that being said, there will be touchdowns scored this week. Let’s look at who we believe will find the end zone in NFL Week 7.
NFL Week 7 – Best Anytime Touchdown Bets
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens +126 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Lamar has four rushing touchdowns this season, and we expect him to pick up his fifth this week at home against the Lions. Last season, the Lions allowed the most rushing yards to QBs by 175 yards. This season, Detroit has improved in that area. The Lions have only allowed 77 rushing yards to QBs on 17 rushing attempts. Part of this is they are pressing the QB at a higher rate and getting more sacks. Another part of this is Detroit has not played many mobile QBs at all. Patrick Mahomes, the arguably most mobile QB they have played this season, had six rushes for 45 yards in the opener. Desmond Ridder, the 2nd most mobile QB, was held in check, but that was more so due to Detroit dominating the time of possession and the Falcons playing from behind.
Lamar Jackson is by far the best runner Detroit has faced this season. He leads Baltimore in red-zone carries and rushing touchdowns. Lamar is a threat to score from 40 yards away as well as in the red zone. The Lions’ run defense has been great at stopping explosive plays and stopping the run in general, but they have not faced a running threat like Lamar. Jackson should be able to make it into the end zone, and considering this game has a total of 43 which is the 5th highest total this week, this is a solid game to target.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders +170 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The Giants rank 26th in passing DVOA on defense this season, and Terry McLaurin should be able to take advantage. New York is tied for the 3rd most receiving touchdowns allowed this season. McLaurin is the most targetted Commander by an 11-target margin, so he should be able to see a majority of the passes in his direction on Sunday. McLaurin is not often targeted in the red zone, but he is a threat to score from over 20 yards out. Adoree Jackson will have the task of guarding McLaurin, and he has a 37 coverage grade, according to PFF.
Sam Howell continues to sling the rock as Washington has the highest pass rate over expected this season. Based on the matchup, McLaurin, Washington’s No. 1 WR, should be able to find paydirt. He has only one touchdown this season, but this is a great situation for him to get his second.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
The odds are not out for Adams at the time of posting, but if it is +150 or better, this is a great bet to make. We do not know who will be under center, but we know Adams has made it clear in the media this week that he wants the football more. Adams is familiar with playing at Soldier Field from his time in Green Bay, and I’m sure he would love to get another score there on Sunday. The Bears’ secondary is healthy again and has played decently, but Davante Adams is one of the best WRs in the NFL, and he should be peppered with targets on Sunday.
For more picks, click here.