On this week’s edition of Thursday night football, the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears. Both teams are coming off soul-crushing losses in Week 4, so who has the edge in this matchup?
Let’s dive into the NFL Week 5 matchup between the Bears and Commanders, break down some storylines, and discuss some prop bets to consider for this game.
NFL Week 5 – Commanders vs. Bears
Why Washington could win:
Simply put, the Commanders are the better football team. Washington is 2-2, and their two losses came against the Bills and Eagles, who are two of the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. While the final score of the Bills/Commanders game was ugly, Washington was actually not as far away from winning that game as the final score indicated. Then, Washington went into Philly and had a chance to beat the Eagles on the road. While there are no moral victories in football, both of these games, especially the one against Philly, are as close to a moral victory as it comes.
The Commanders also played their best game of the season on Sunday, and just like the Bears, it did not result in a win. Washington was playing Philly close all game, and they tied the game as the clock expired to send the game to overtime. The question remains if Washington was better off going for two and trying to win the game in regulation. The Commanders opted to send the game to OT, and they got the ball first, but they were not able to capitalize, and Philly kicked a field goal to win. Now, Washington hosts the Bears on a short week, and the market is telling us two things: they think Washington is better than their record and that they are not impressed with Chicago’s offensive explosion on Sunday. While the Eagles are certainly a little bit worse than they were last year, Washington hung around with them all day and proved they are at least a competent team.
On the other hand, the Bears beat up arguably the worst defense in football (the same defense Washington hung 35 points on just three weeks ago), and they still could not seal the victory. Washington was laying 5.5 points at open, and this was immediately bet up to Washington -6.5. Washington’s defense has struggled with mobile QBs this season (Wilson, Allen, and Hurts all played well against them), but if they can limit Justin Fields’ ability to stretch plays, the Commanders should win comfortably. They have the edge in every sense of this game. Washington will be able to pressure Chicago and avoid pressure on offense, the Commanders will be able to establish the run and thwart the Bears’ rushing attack, and Sam Howell should be able to pick apart his depleted Chicago secondary.
Why Chicago could win:
For the first three-quarters of their matchup on Sunday, the Bears looked like they would come out victorious. The Chicago Bears had a 28-14 lead heading into the 4th quarter, but they ended up losing due to a Denver touchdown drive and a fumble return for a touchdown. Chicago outgained Denver 471 to 311, had 26 first downs, went 50% on third down, punted fewer times, and had more sacks than the Broncos. Unfortunately for the Bears, they turned it over twice, one for six Denver points, and that was the difference between them winning and losing. Justin Fields played his best game of the season by a mile – he threw for 335 yards on an 80% completion percentage with four touchdown passes and one interception.
Washington struggles with mobile QBs, and their secondary has let them down this season. Fields is a mobile QB, and DJ Moore has under the radar been playing better each and every week in Chicago. Considering Fields’ strength on the ground and Washington’s struggles in coverage, the Bears could be able to dink, dunk, and run their way to points against Washington. With that being said, this is a lot to ask for from Chicago, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities.
While no one should make any bets off trends, there are situations worth monitoring in the NFL. One of those situations is when a team plays an overtime game and then has to play on a short week on TNF. According to Clevanayltics, teams in this spot, like Washington, are 3-21 ATS and win just 25% of the time straight up. This is a large enough sample size to be concerned with, and this situation could prove to be a good one for the Bears.
NFL Week 5 – Commanders vs. Bears Prop Bets
Justin Fields Over 44.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
While Justin Fields has not used his legs as much this season, this is a great game for him to do so. Fields is averaging 33.5 rush yards a game, but two of those low-output games came against two stout defenses against rushing QBs, and the other two games, against poor defenses, is when he went over this number comfortably. Fields had 88 rushing yards on 12 carries last year when he faced this same Commanders defense that is third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed against QBs this season. Washington has already faced a few rushing QBs, and Russell Wilson and Josh Allen went over this number comfortably. Lastly, considering how bad the Bears’ offensive line is and how good Washington’s defensive front is, Fields could be running for his life, which will help him go over this number on Thursday.
Cole Kmet Under 31.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Kmet is 2nd on the Bears in targets and 2nd on the team in receiving yards. He is averaging 47.5 receiving yards per game. However, now he has to face a Commander’s defense that has allowed 13 receptions and 83 receiving yards to tight ends all season long. Considering we are expecting Fields to run it a lot, and based on how bad the Commanders’ secondary has played, Fields will likely look to run it or throw it outside more often in this game.
NFL Week 5 – Commanders vs. Bears Game Prediction
Initially, I leaned toward betting on Washington against the spread and using them in a six-point teaser. They are the better team with more matchup advantages, but that does not mean Washington will win. When Chicago was +7 was the time to fire on Chicago. Now, considering that number is gone, the play would be to tease up Chicago to +11.5 or +12.5 or bet their team total over. It is really hard to trust either of these teams, but taking points is the way to go about it.
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