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MLB Player Props – Best Bets for Friday, 4/21

After a short but sweet MLB slate yesterday, we have a jam-packed MLB slate filled with brand-new series. We should be in for an amazing slate today, so let’s look at the best MLB Player Props to bet on today.

MLB Player Props – Best Straight Bets

Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts -114 (BetRivers)
Aaron Nola has not been his usual self this season in terms of ERA, FIP, WAR, and K percentage, but this matchup today against the Rockies is a great get-right spot for Nola. His teammate, lefty Matt Strham, struck out 11 Rockies yesterday, so I like the outlook for Nola today against this really weak Colorado lineup. Nola is only in the 39th percentile for K rate and the 21st for Whiff%, but his chase rate is in the 75th percentile, which is important for a guy like Nola without overwhelming velocity. The Rockies strike out at over a 23% rate against righties and a league-high 28.4% K rate on the road.

Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs -125 (DraftKings)

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball, and the 2nd year catch is a major reason why this offense is so explosive. Rutschman is the O’s No. 2 hitter, and he is one of the best in the Majors at getting on base. With this type of bet, Rutschman can walk all he wants as long as his teammates behind him are doing their part as well. Add on the fact this O’s lineup is going against Michael Lorenzen of the Tigers, and I love Rutschman’s outlook today.

Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts -134 (FanDuel)

On paper, this seems like an easy number for Kikichi to go over. He is in the 72nd percentile in K rate, and the 93rd in chase rate, and the Yankees strike out a lot. However, dating back to last season, Kikuchi was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball on the road. He allowed a ton of fly balls and home runs and had a very high FIP. Even without Staton and with a mediocre bottom of the lineup, this Yankees team can still mash, and I expect them to chase Kikuchi out before he can rack up six or more Ks.

Seth Lugo Under 4.5 Strikeouts -116 (FanDuel)

Since becoming a starter, Lugo has done a decent job racking up strikeouts this season. Lugo is in the 60th percentile in K rate so far this season. However, I expect regression. The Diamondbacks have the 2nd lowest K rate in all of baseball at home and the 24th highest against righties this season. Lugo has gone over this number in all three starts, but that should end today.

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