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MLB Betting Report for Friday, July 28

Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia

Welcome to the launch of the GoldSheet’s new daily MLB stat sheet. Each day we’ll have a starting pitcher and bullpen report on a handful of featured games for that day, plus a recommended traditional play (moneyline, total, etc.) and a recommended prop bet for the day. The goal is to have the sheet published around noon ET each day, assuming that starting pitchers are announced and lines are widely available.

Access to the MLB daily stat sheet is $15 for seven days, which comes out to a little over $2 per day. Click here to purchase for the upcoming week. If you are more interested in just the picks side of things and not necessarily on the stats and handicapping tools, we’ve got you covered there as well. Over on our WagerTalk page, we post several of our top selections and prop bets each day with detailed analysis.

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Featured Games for Friday, July 28:
#951 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) at #952 Pittsburgh Pirates (Keller)
#953 Washington Nationals (Gore) at #954 New York Mets (Scherzer)
#963 Los Angeles Angels (Giolito) at #964 Toronto Blue Jays (Gausman)
#969 Minnesota Twins (Gray) at #970 Kansas City Royals (Singer)

Play of the Day: #955 / 956 Braves vs Brewers First Five Over 5.5 Runs (-125)
Both teams had off yesterday so both bullpens are rested and ready. We’re going to stay away from the full game and focus on the starting pitcher matchup between two guys that are vulnerable. The Braves just saw Adrian Houser last week, so this will be their second time seeing him in six days. But they’re moving from one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly environments in Milwaukee, to gametime temperatures near 90 tonight in Atlanta. Houser gave up seven hard-hit balls in 6.0 innings in that contest. Houser enters this one in the bottom-30th percentile among pitchers in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected batting average, strikeout rate and whiff rate. The Braves’ active roster is hitting .282 in 80 plate appearances against Houser with a .370 expected weighted on-base average. On the other side, Yonny Chirinos will be making his debut for the Braves and he’s in the exact same scenario: Moving from one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks in Tampa to a sweltering cauldron in Atlanta. In his last start against the Royals, Chirinos gave up three home runs in 4.2 innings. In his last five appearances (19.2 innings), he’s given up seven home runs. Milwaukee added Carlos Santana yesterday, who should add an element of power to the Brewers’ lineup.

Prop of the Day: MacKenzie Gore (WSN) Over 5.5 Strikeouts at NY Mets
When the Mets traded David Robertson to Miami yesterday, reality set in on where this season is heading for the blue-and-orange. In the 12 games since the All-Star Break, the Mets have been held to two runs or fewer seven times, including three of their last four games. One of the biggest reasons for that is the Mets’ decline against left-hand pitching. Since June 1, the Mets are hitting .207 against lefty pitchers (No. 29 in MLB) with a 78 wRC+ (No. 25). During that time, they have a 25.4-percent strikeout rate against lefties (No. 21). The Mets’ current roster is batting .206 in 38 plate appearances against Gore with a 34.2-percent strikeout rate and a .236 weighted on-base average. Gore struck out ten when he faced the Mets earlier this season, and he has actually pitched better on the road than home in Washington. Gore has a strong 29.7-percent strikeout rate on the road this season.

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