The PGA Tour heads south of the border for this week’s Mexico Open at Vidanta. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau highlight the field. WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang shares his thoughts on this week’s event with betting tips, DFS recommendations and players to avoid.
Mexico Open Field
Rahm and Finau are the two notables at the top of the odds board, but there are very few notable names behind them. Including Rahm and Finau, we only have three golfers with two or more top-10 finishes at PGA events in the last six weeks: Ben Martin, Matt Wallace and Wyndham Clark.
The weakened field makes this tournament tough to handicap, but when looking at this course, it’s long and you need to drive the ball a long ways to succeed. Seven of the top-10 finishers last year were in the top-16 in driving distance, and the fairways are very wide so the bombers will be swinging for the fences. The course does feature water and trees so there are opportunities for players to put themselves in trouble Wind can be a problem as last year we saw 30 MPH conditions, but it does not look like it will be very windy during the day so I would expect conditions to be easier this year. Rahm won at -17, and I would expect a score similar to that to win maybe even up to -20. Here are the top-10 players in total strokes gained this week:
1. Jon Rahm
2. Tony Finau
3. Wyndham Clark
4. Nicolai Hojgaard
5. Ben Martin
6. Byeung Hun An
7. Gary Woodland
8. Eric Cole
9. Aaron Rai
10. Beau Hossler
Mexico Open Players to Avoid
Ben Martin – Martin will surely be on the list of golfers to back this week, but I would be cautious. He has been good this season, there’s no doubt, but I can’t ignore that he’s 147th in distance off the tee and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he missed the cut here last year. Last year he was in miserable form coming into the tournament, which might suggest last year isn’t a good comparison. But he finished 41st at the RBC Heritage two tourneys ago, and him and Chesson Hadley missed the cut at the Zurich last week so maybe his current form isn’t that great. On a course this long, I think not having distance off the tee will put him at a big disadvantage. I won’t be putting him in any bets or in any of my lineups.
Gary Woodland – Woodland is the fourth-highest-priced player in the daily fantasy market, and he’s +190 to finish in the top-10, but that seems pretty ambitious, even in this field. He has one top-10 finish in 2023, and while he’s making the cut, I don’t see his upside. His short game has been abysmal this year…again…as he’s -0.40 strokes gained putting and -0.43 strokes gained around the green. He can drive the ball a mile and his accuracy is good, but if you can’t get the ball in the hole when you get in close, your upside is limited. There is no way I’m paying this price for Gary Woodland.
Mexico Open DFS Darlings
Jimmy Walker ($7,100) – I’ll buy into the Jimmy Walker resurgence recently as he’s made the cut at The Honda, Valero and RBC Heritage, and although those are weak fields, so is this one. He drives the ball well above average which should be helpful this week. If he makes the cut, then this price will end up being a bargain.
Andrew Novak ($7,300) – Andrew Novak has quietly made the cut in ten out of 12 tournaments in 2023 (minus the Zurich), and although he doesn’t drive the ball far, he finished 15th last year here making this a good price.
Will Gordon ($7,900) – He missed the cut at The Zurich and the Valero, but before that, had made the cut in four-straight tournaments. He drives the ball long and straight which should help him make the cut.
Stephen Jaeger ($8,200) – He finished 15th last year, has made the cut in four out of five tournaments and his length off the tee is solid.
Garrick Higgo ($8,300) – He has four-straight made cuts, and can hit the ball far off the tee.
Tony Finau ($10,700) – I feel you have to have Finau or Rahm in your lineup this week for the upside. They finished 1-2 last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did something similar again this year.
Mexico Open Best Bet
Tony Finau Top-10 (-115 at DraftKings)
Finau only has two top-10 finishes in 2023, but he has nine finishes at 26th or better and he’s only been playing in the big events with loaded fields. This is by far the weakest field he’s played in this year, so he should be fighting for a win on Sunday. He finished second here last year, and all of his stats are elite this year. I like that he didn’t play last week to get a break after The Masters and RBC Heritage back-to-back tournaments. He is No. 1 this week in Strokes Gained on approach this week, and No. 2 in Total Strokes Gained. If plays like he normally does, he should in one of the final groups on Sunday.