Conference-USA got the party started with some midweek appetizers in October, but MACtion season is officially here. Midweek MACtion kicks off on Halloween night as West Division-leading Toledo hosts a Buffalo team that has beaten the Rockets in each of their last three meetings.
#301 Buffalo at #302 Toledo (Tuesday at 7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT)
Buffalo has won and covered the spread in each of the last three meetings, including a 34-27 home win last season. The last Toledo win in this MACtion series came back in 2013. All four of Buffalo’s conference games have stayed under the total thus far. Last week’s win over Miami (Oh) broke Toledo’s five-game losing streak against the spread. Despite a 3-5 overall record, Buffalo remains very much alive for the MAC East title as the Bulls have won three of their four conference games. However, two of those three wins have come against Akron and Kent State, neither of which have beaten an FBS-level opponent this season. Buffalo’s offense is averaging less than 300 yards per game (297.0) in the four MAC games while the Bulls’ defense is allowing an average of 269.3 yards per game. Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread as an underdog this season. Toledo, as expected, is the clear class of the MAC West division and the Rockets are the only team yet to lose a conference game. While the overall results have been positive, Toledo bettors have not shared the same joy as the Rockets are 2-5 against the spread as a favorite this season. Toledo should enjoy a big advantage in the trenches. The Rockets have only allowed three sacks so far this season, which is the best mark in the country. The Bulls are bottom-10 in the country in yards per play differential, and like we mentioned, that’s with a schedule that has featured two winless teams. Lay the points with the Rockets.
#303 Northern Illinois at #304 Central Michigan (Tuesday at 7pm ET / 4pm PT)
The Huskies and Chippewas have traded road wins over the last two seasons with Northern Illinois earning a one-point road win in 2021, and Central Michigan returning the favor 35-22 in DeKalb last season. Central Michigan has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. Dating back to the end of last season, the Chippewas are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games. Northern Illinois is Toledo’s closest contender in the MAC West with just one loss in conference play, but unfortunately for the Huskies, that loss came against Toledo and the Rockets will hold the potential tiebreaker, if needed. Since that two-point loss at Toledo, NIU has rattled off three consecutive wins and point spread covers, including an upset win as a seven-point underdog against Ohio. Central Michigan has yet to lose back-to-back games this season. That streak will be put to the test as the Chippewas lost their last game, 24-17, as a 5.5-point road favorite at Ball State. Central Michigan has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 attempts as an underdog. Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in ten of its last 13 as a favorite with seven outright losses.
#305 Ball State at #306 Bowling Green (Wednesday at 7pm ET / 4pm PT)
The last meeting in this MAC matchup occurred in 2015 with Bowling Green earning a 48-10 road win. Dating back to last season, the under is 12-3 in Ball State’s last 15 games. Prior to upsetting Central Michigan at home, Ball State was just 1-6 on the year (including 0-3 in conference play), with that lone win coming against FCS-level Indiana State. Ball State has been an underdog against every FBS opponent that the Cardinals have faced, and that doesn’t change here against a Bowling Green team that has already gone on the road and upset Georgia Tech earlier this year. Ball State is in the bottom-15 in the country in turnover differential (-6), points per game differential (-12.9), yards per game (295) and points per game (16.1). Bowling Green is 2-0 against the spread as a favorite this season, and we believe the Falcons can make it 3-0 on Wednesday. Play Bowling Green.
#307 Kent State at #308 Akron (Wednesday at 7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT)
Kent State has won the last four meetings, including a 33-27 home win last season. The Golden Flashes have covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. Five of the last six meetings have stayed under the total. Kent State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games. Kent State was expected to be one of the worst teams in the country this season. The Golden Flashes had just four returning starters for a first-time head coach, including zero returning starters on offense. The Golden Flashes have scored a grand total of 62 points in seven games against FBS-level competition with only five total touchdowns. All seven losses have been by at least 14 points. There was more optimism on the Akron side heading into this year, but an injury to quarterback DJ Irons has stalled the Zips’ progress and Akron joins Kent State among the winless against FBS opponents this season. This is a kitchen sink game for both teams. This is likely the only opportunity that either team will have to pick up a win. It won’t be pretty, but 38 is too low for two teams that are gonna scratch and claw for every point in this one. Play the over.