The Padres have not won the National League West since 2006, but after advancing to the NLCS in 2022, we believe San Diego is ready to take the next step and de-throne the Dodgers at the top of the division standings in 2023.
Key Acquisitions: SS Xander Bogaerts, RHP Seth Lugo, DH Matt Carpenter, DH Nelson Cruz, OF Adam Engel, RHP Michael Wacha (re-signed RHP Robert Suarez and RHP Nick Martinez)
Key Departures: OF Jurickson Profar, 1B/OF Wil Myers, DH Josh Bell, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Mike Clevinger, IF Brandon Drury, C Jorge Alfaro
Play: 1 unit San Diego Padres to win the NL West +140 (Pointsbet)
Line Parameter: No play if the line goes to +115 or worse
We have the Padres slated to win 97 games and their closest competition, the Dodgers, 94 wins. At +140 odds for the Padres to win the division, there is immense value, and we recommend a play on the Padres to win the NL West at +140 down to +116.
Analyzing the Padres’ Roster
San Diego is tired of being the little brother to the Los Angeles Dodgers, so over the past few seasons, the Padres have acquired a ton of talent like Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Blake Snell and now Xander Bogaerts. San Diego has put together the best lineup in the entire sport. Not only is their lineup deep the hitters that San Diego added are equally as good in the field, so this team is chock full of five-tool players. No other team can same the same thing about their lineup and defense from top to bottom.
While the Padres’ offense is expected to be immaculate, their pitching staff is not quite of the same caliber. San Diego opted to move on from Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger, but both of these players were not great for the Padres last season. San Diego’s pitching staff is front-loaded with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell and their bullpen is solid with Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and free agent acquisition Seth Lugo. But, the way this roster stands now, San Diego will look to out-score more teams rather than try to win a close, low-scoring game.
NL West Outlook
When evaluating the Padres’ ability to win the NL West, it is important to break down and have an understanding of the other four teams in the division. The Rockies are terrible, so they pose a threat to nobody. The Giants attempted to get better by going after every star they could, but they were unable to sign any big names and actually lost one of their best players, Carlos Rodon, in the process. The Diamondbacks are young and ascending, but they still seem to be a year away from being a year away. All that is left is the mighty Dodgers, who have had a chokehold on this division for the last decade.
The Dodgers are big spenders, and they are always loaded offensively, defensively, on the rubber and in the farm system. However, the Dodgers also always overperform in the regular season and underperform in the postseason. With that being said, this is the first off-season in quite a few years that the Dodgers got worse. They were able to add J.D. Martinez, but they lost key contributors in Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson. Don’t get me wrong – the Dodgers still pose a threat, but should they be -155 at some shops to win the NL West? Absolutely not.
All things considered, this seems like the season the Padres finally overtake the Dodgers as the best team in California. While the Padres’ payroll is currently ridiculously high, this team still won’t hesitate to add an arm at the deadline if it will help them win the NL West and, ideally, the World Series. At +140 to win the NL West, there is a ton of value in this number, and we recommend a one-unit wager on this.
Season-Long Projections
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2023 Schedule Analysis:
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