Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Betting Pick: Preview
Here are the odds at the time of posting for the series opener between the Diamondbacks and the Brewers.
Tuesday, April 11 MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of DraftKings
Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers -125 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks +105
Runline: Brewers -1.5 +135 / Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Total: 8.5 Runs (Over -115/ Under -105)
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET / 6:40 pm PT
Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
Weather: 89 degrees
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: Analysis
Though we are only 10 or 11 games into each team’s seasons, we have a fantastic matchup of two overperforming teams in the Desert tonight. The 7-3 Brewers take on the 7-4 Diamondbacks in game two of a three-game series. Arizona took game one last night 3-0 behind a marvelous 7-inning start from Zac Gallen.
The Brewers will have their ace, righty Corbin Burnes, on the mound tonight in Arizona. The Diamondbacks will send righty Merrill Kelly to the mound tonight. Which team has the edge in tonight’s matchup? Let’s dive in.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: Diamondbacks Preview
Arizona’s 7-4 start should not be overly surprising. This is a very solid young team, and so far, they have come out and shown how good they can be this season. The market is still disrespecting them as they have been an underdog in 10 out of the 11 games they have played so far, yet they have covered the run line as an underdog in 7 out of 10 games this season.
Merrill Kelly will make the start for the Diamondbacks at home tonight against the Brewers. Kelly has looked alright in both of his starts so far this season. In total, this season, Kelly has pitched 9.1 innings and has allowed four runs on nine hits with eight walks and eight strikeouts. Both of those starts were against the Dodgers, a team that is very familiar with him, so it is not too shocking to see him have a rough go against them. Through two starts, Kelly has a 4.25 FIP, a 7.71 K/9, a 76.5% LOB%, and a 7.71 BB/9.
Arizona has a tough matchup against Corbin Burnes tonight. On the season, the Diamondbacks’ offense is 11th in WAR, 17th in wRC+, and 13th in ISO. At home, the Diamondbacks are 5th in wRC+, 5th in WAR, 9th in ISO, and 6th in hard-hit percentage. Against righties, the Diamondbacks struggle, and they are 21st in wRC+, 20th in WAR, and 16th in ISO.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: Brewers Preview
The Brewers were expected to take another step back this season, but so far, this team has been very good, and they are surpassing expectations. Milwaukee is 7-3, and they are 4-2 covering the run line as a favorite. Milwaukee’s series win against the Cardinals and sweep of the Mets may be signs that this team is much better than people expected them to be.
Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Brewers tonight in Arizona. It has not been a very Burnes-like start to the season for the former Cy Young winner. In two starts, Burners has a 7.15 FIP and just a 5.79 K/9. He allowed six runs in his last start against the Mets in just 4.1 innings of work, and he allowed four runs against the Cubs the start before that in five innings of work. This is very unlike Burnes, and it is easy to expect him to bounce back, but I am not sure Burnes is the same pitcher. His fastball spin rate is still incredible, but he is not in great percentile rankings across the league in most other categories.
When playing at home this season, the Brewers have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball. When they have been on the road, like they are tonight, they are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. So, what are they? Are they a good offensive team that should regress on the road? Or are they a bad offensive team whose home stats do not tell the full story? Of course, the sample size is tiny, but I assume that this team’s road offensive numbers are more of an indicator of how this team is on offense.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: Prediction
This matchup is interesting because Corbin Burnes has been so bad, and Merrill Kelly is very mediocre, so it is a race to see which pitcher gives out first. The obvious way to think about it would be to assume it is Kelly since Burnes has won a Cy Young, but I would rather take the better team getting a run and a half at home at a reasonable price.
Prediction: Arizona +1.5 -155