Each week during the college football season, we will do an autopsy to figure out where we were right, where we were wrong and where the box score may not have lined up with the final result. Here are some notable results from College Football Week 9:
Where We Were Right…
NC State +10 vs Clemson
This season has the potential to really come off the rails for Clemson. The Tigers were dominant in the box score: 364-202 in total yards and 21-9 in first downs, but never led in the game and lost the turnover battle 2-0. Running back Will Shipley is getting treated for a concussion this week. Take a look at who Clemson still has to play this season: A top-15 Notre Dame team, a Georgia Tech squad that has already beaten Miami and North Carolina this season, a North Carolina team that was in the top-15 two weeks ago, and a South Carolina team that beat Clemson last season. There could certainly be two (maybe more?!) losses on the Tigers’ schedule if Dabo Swinney can’t turn the tide of this locker room.
Old Dominion +19 at James Madison
James Madison deserves massive praise for what the Dukes have accomplished over the last two seasons, but this spot against Old Dominion was the perfect one to take advantage of an inflated price. James Madison’s biggest lead in this contest was ten points, and Old Dominion answered every time JMU got out to a lead. James Madison was a deserved winner, but Old Dominion gained 415 total yards and 20 first downs on 5.3 yards per play. The Monarchs never should have been a 19-point underdog in this spot in our opinion. We’ll be keeping a close eye on James Madison’s numbers over the next couple weeks to see if they continue to get priced a little too high.
Boise State -4.5 vs Wyoming
Four weeks from now, there’s a chance that Boise State is looking back at this regular season knowing that they may have let a really special season slip away. The Broncos’ three losses this season have come by a total of six points, and all three losses came via wild scenarios: Walk-off field goal vs UCF, blocked field goal return for a touchdown against Memphis and a last-second hail mary against Colorado State. With running back George Holani back from injury and the Broncos getting more comfortable with a two-quarterback system, Boise State looks poised to make a November run in the Mountain West. The Broncos’ defense held Wyoming to 112 total yards and eight first downs on 2.5 yards per play.
Arizona State +5 vs Washington State
First-year head coach Kenny Dillingham was thrust into a near-impossible situation at the beginning of this season. Not only was he trying to re-build the Sun Devils’ roster from the previous regime, he was losing all of his healthy pieces in the process. Arizona State was using its fourth-string quarterback by the third game of the season. Now that he has his healthy pieces in place, Coach Dillingham is showing what his team is capable of. Unfortunately, this may have been the last “affordable” opportunity to back an underrated Sun Devils squad. With this win over Washington State as a home ‘dog, the cat is officially out of the bag and Arizona State is a team to watch the rest of the season in the Pac-12.
Iowa State -3 at Baylor
Matt Campbell probably won’t get the same amount of credit for this season than he got from 2017-20 when the Cyclones finished top-3 in the Big XII three times and won the Fiesta Bowl. But he probably should. Think back to July and August where there were questions about whether Iowa State was going to be able to field a competitive team thanks to all of the smoke surrounding the Iowa collegiate betting scandal. Campbell was able hold the roster together and the Cyclones are now riding a three-game win streak and only need to win one more game to reach bowl eligibility. Redshirt freshman QB Rocco Becht has taken command of the offense and this was a comfortable wire-to-wire win over the Bears in Waco.
Texas -20 vs BYU
BYU got a taste of its own medicine. Entering this contest, the Cougars were one of the most-flawed 5-2 teams in recent memory. They were out-gained by 203 yards in a win over Cincinnati. They were out-gained by 143 yards in a win over Arkansas. They caught Texas Tech with the Red Raiders on their third-string quarterback. BYU was only out-gained by 62 yards against the Longhorns and the Cougars actually had more first downs and a fairly nice edge in time of possession. BYU probably didn’t deserve to lose this game by 29, but after some of their earlier results, the football gods caught up to them with this one.
Oklahoma State -7.5 vs Cincinnati
While college football pundits from across the country begin making their Heisman cases for a variety of quarterbacks, there is one running back that deserves some national attention. In the month of October, Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon ran for 857 yards in four games. He generated nine touchdowns in those four games while rushing for 8.2 yards per carry, and he added in 11 receptions for 142 receiving yards for good measure. This Oklahoma State offense is rolling right now.
SMU -21 vs Tulsa
Much like Boise State and Arizona State, last week was probably the last chance to get an affordable number on SMU. The Mustangs have out-scored their last two opponents by a combined 124-10. If you want to go back a little further, SMU has out-scored its last four opponents by a margin of 189-36. SMU is still not receiving any votes in the AP Poll. That may need to change shortly.
Where We Were Wrong…
Charlotte vs Florida Atlantic Under 46
If you’ve watched a Charlotte game this season or seen any clips on social media, you already know that 49ers head coach Biff Poggi is an interesting guy with interesting tactics. He’s going to put those tactics to the test this week. Immediately after Charlotte’s loss to Florida Atlantic, Poggi announced that he was issuing several one-game suspensions through out his roster. “I am extremely disappointed with our comportment as a football team against FAU,” Poggi said. “I have made the decision to immediately suspend various players for our game against Tulsa.” Poggi will not be announcing the names of the suspended players and those players will not even make the trip to Tulsa this week.
Army -9.5 vs UMass
We were under the impression that Army QB Bryson Daily was probably a little healthier than he actually was. Daily missed the Knights’ trip to LSU two weeks ago. He was cleared to return this past weekend, but he certainly didn’t look 100-percent after going 3-for-13 with two interceptions. UMass enjoyed a 3-0 advantage in turnovers and the Minutemen were strong on third down, going 7-for-12 on offense while making several key stops against Army’s attack.
Boston College -14 vs UConn
This was pretty disgusting. Boston College out-gained UConn by 211 yards and held a 30-10 advantage in first downs. The Eagles ran 83 plays on offense, only had to punt one time and had a 20-minute advantage in time of possession. And only won by seven points. That’s pretty gross. Boston College turned the ball over twice and the game ended with Boston College taking knees on the UConn goalline instead of punching in a spread-covering touchdown.
North Carolina -12 at Georgia Tech
Superman, meet Kryptonite. For the third year in a row, Georgia Tech beat North Carolina as a double-digit underdog. Those three games occurred in three different stadiums, so you can’t blame it on the location. Brent Key wasn’t Georgia Tech’s coach in 2021, so you can’t really call it a coaching thing. Georgia Tech has had a different quarterback in all three matchups, so you can’t really pin it on a quarterback. Whatever it is, Georgia Tech has it right now against the Tar Heels.
Ohio vs Miami (Oh) Under 39
If you would have said before the game: “Miami is going to have 291 total yards with 14 first downs, and the RedHawks’ quarterback is going to complete seven passes for 103 yards,” we’re going to feel pretty comfortable with our position on the under. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Teams that generate 291 total yards and complete seven passes in a game typically don’t score 30 points in a game.
Maryland -13.5 at Northwestern
In hindsight, we wish we would have put a little more emphasis on the scheduling spot here for Maryland. The Terps were coming off their bye week and have Penn State next on the schedule. Since joining the Big Ten, Maryland has tried to ignite a regional rivalry with the Nittany Lions, and have largely been unsuccessful. What did Maryland do on its bye week? They probably got together and watched Penn State trip over its feet for 60 minutes against Ohio State. Then thoughts start creeping in: Penn State looks bad. This is the year we can beat them. All the while completely forgetting that they have to play Northwestern before any of that can happen. With the benefit of hindsight, we probably should have taken a closer look at this scheduling spot.
Colorado State +14.5 vs Air Force
Not quite as gross as Boston College against UConn, but not far behind. For the fourth time in the last five meetings, Colorado State out-gained Air Force and lost. The Rams out-gained the Falcons by 46 yards and were much better on a per-play basis (5.3 yards to 4.6) but didn’t score in the second half and went 0-for-3 on fourth down. That’s how you fail to cover a 14.5-point spread in a game where you were tied at halftime.
Oregon State -3 at Arizona
Another one where you just have to shrug your shoulders and chalk it up to bad variance. Oregon State out-gained Arizona by 44 yards and was better on a per-play basis (6.6 yards to 5.9). The Beavers had more first downs, were better on third down and didn’t turn the ball over. That’s a game you should probably win. The failed fake field goal attempt at the end of the first half certainly didn’t help.
Florida vs Georgia Under 48
Our read on this one was off, and with the benefit of hindsight, the over made sense. We fed into the early criticism of Georgia’s offense: It was a two-man show between quarterback Carson Beck and tight end Brock Bowers. The All-American was destroying defenses, and we were skeptical for how the Dawgs’ offense would look without him. Bowers was Beck’s security blanket, and without him, Beck was forced to push the ball in other areas. He passed that test with flying colors. Because Bowers is so good, you forget that Georgia has five-star athletes at nearly every other position to help them pick up the slack.