Each week during the college football season, we will do an autopsy to figure out where we were right, where we were wrong and where the box score may not have lined up with the final result. Here are some notable results from Week 8:
Where We Were Right…
SMU -20.5 at Temple
EJ Warner was out for Temple once again which is obviously a big blow for the Owls’ offense, but just like we said the prior week against North Texas, Warner doesn’t play on defense. Over the last five weeks, Miami (Fla) scored 41 in a tropical depression, Tulsa scored 48, UTSA scored 49, North Texas scored 45 and SMU scored 55 against the Owls. SMU has quietly remained under the radar in the AAC, but the Mustangs may need to make a few more 55-0 statements to get back into the national discussion. We’ll see how the first edition of the College Football Playoff poll shakes out next week, but SMU did not receive any votes in this week’s AP Poll. So in the Group of Five pecking order for a potential spot in the New Years Six bowl series, SMU is trailing Air Force, Tulane, James Madison (what a sticky situation that is, huh?), Liberty, Fresno State, Toledo and UNLV in the AP Poll. The Mustangs may need to crank up some style points if the opportunity is there in future weeks.
Georgia Tech vs Boston College Over 58
Both of these teams are likely to play high-scoring, high-variance games the rest of the way. This marked Boston College’s 11th-straight “over” dating back to last season. The Eagles gained 563 total yards on 7.8 yards per play. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos was 17-of-29 for 255 passing yards and added 128 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Because of Georgia Tech’s defensive struggles, Yellow Jacket quarterback Haynes King tried to force things and threw three interceptions including one that was returned for a touchdown. King has thrown seven interceptions in Georgia Tech’s last three games. It won’t get any easier for Georgia Tech this week against an angry North Carolina squad.
Oklahoma State +3.5 at West Virginia
West Virginia let a golden opportunity in the Big XII slip away. The Mountaineers started 2-0 in conference play and don’t have to play Texas, Kansas or Kansas State this season. Last week’s hail mary loss to Houston lingered over to this week where West Virginia’s defense was unable to stop the Cowboys’ rushing attack. Ollie Gordon ran for 282 yards on 29 carries with four touchdowns. West Virginia’s offense produced 475 total yards and 24 first downs on 6.4 yards per play, but the Mountaineers’ defense did not hold up their end of the bargain.
East Carolina vs Charlotte Under 41
When you see a team that’s 2-5 on your remaining schedule, that’s normally a good thing. We’re not sure how many of Charlotte’s five remaining opponents feel that way about facing the 49ers. Charlotte’s defense held East Carolina to 127 total yards and ten first downs on 2.5 yards per play. In the week prior, the 49ers’ defense held Navy to 265 total yards and ten first downs on 4.8 yards per play. Biff Poggi is building a very capable defense in the AAC, and with his coaching style, you know the 49ers are going to give a good effort for 60 minutes each week.
Old Dominion +6 vs App State
Tip your cap to Old Dominion for getting the job done, but this handicap was primarily based on fading App State. Up until this point of the season, the Mountaineers have primarily gotten by with name recognition and a good result against North Carolina. Outside of that, this year’s App State team is a far cry from prior versions that were competing for Sun Belt championships. There was nothing fraudulent about this win for ODU. The Monarchs out-gained the Mountaineers, were better on a yards per play basis, had more first downs, were better on third down and didn’t turn the ball over.
BYU +3 vs Texas Tech
We’re kicking ourselves a little bit for not making this a higher-priority selection. Texas Tech was down to its third-string quarterback and the Red Raiders were on their eighth-straight week with a game. The travel, health and rest disparity was apparent as the Cougars jumped out to a 24-7 lead at halftime. Texas Tech out-gained BYU by 112 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0. This will be the third week in a row where BYU gets to face a backup quarterback. TCU’s Josh Hoover was making his first college start two weeks ago. Texas Tech’s Jake Strong got the nod in his first college start last week. And the Cougars will now face Texas without Quinn Ewers this week.
UCLA -17 vs Stanford
Chip Kelly needed a steady, veteran hand at quarterback this week and he got it. Freshman Dante Moore had thrown a pick-six in each of UCLA’s previous three games. Coach Kelly turned to veteran Ethan Garbers for the start this week, and Garbers rewarded the decision with a clean, easy, mistake-free win over the Cardinal. UCLA out-gained Stanford by 211 yards and held a 32-15 edge in first downs without committing a turnover.
Houston +23 vs Texas
Sports books should pay 1.5x if you correctly predict a Houston game. The volatility involved in Cougars’ games is unmatched by any other team in the country. We said that Houston had the talent to go toe-to-toe with Texas, and that was largely accurate. The Cougars had more yards (392-360), had more first downs (20-19), were better on a yards per play basis (6.0 to 5.2) and only committed one penalty. But Houston was -2 in turnovers, and that was all Texas needed to escape with a win. Unfortunately, you can’t count on that hard-fought effort from the Cougars each week.
Mississippi State +7 at Arkansas
Teams like Texas Tech, Arkansas and Illinois are going to be interesting to monitor after their bye week. The Razorbacks lost as a home favorite to Mississippi State and offensive coordinator Dan Enos was fired immediately after. But look at who Arkansas played leading up to that game: At LSU, Texas A&M on a neutral field (in Texas), at Ole Miss and at Alabama. They lost those four games by an average of 6.3 points per game. Should Razorback fans be upset and disappointed? Sure. But that four-game stretch may be the hardest that any team in the country faces this season and Arkansas had nothing left in the tank for this one.
Where We Were Wrong…
Ohio State vs Penn State Over 46
There were plenty of questions about Penn State’s offense heading into this game, and we gave the Nittany Lions the benefit of the doubt. We shouldn’t have. Penn State has serious issues in the receiving corps and Drew Allar’s confidence took a major hit after that performance. We said that neither team would be able to run the ball, and that was accurate. But Penn State made no attempt whatsoever to push the ball down the field through the air. Take a shot with a 50-50 jump ball. Take a shot with a back-shoulder throw that might generate a pass interference penalty. Whether it was Allar’s confidence or instructions from the sideline, the Nittany Lions never took their shot and paid the price.
Florida Atlantic vs UTEP Over 58
Florida Atlantic’s offense was shockingly bad in this one. UTSA allowed 37 points and 442 yards to Army in Week 3. Army hasn’t scored a single point the last two weeks. UTSA allowed 34 points and 542 yards to Temple in Week 6. Temple has scored a total of 14 points over the last two weeks. So UTSA’s defense isn’t exactly performing at the level of the ’85 Bears this season. This result came out of left field. The RoadRunners held the Owls to 162 total yards on 2.6 yards per play with just 12 first downs in the contest.
Miami (Oh) +2 vs Toledo
Toledo jumped out to a 21-3 lead at halftime, but the RedHawks roared back with two scores in the third quarter. Unfortunately, any hope of a Miami comeback was soured when fifth-year starting quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered a broken leg in the second half. Backup QB Aveon Smith fumbled at midfield with 1:20 remaining to thwart the potential game-winning drive. Smith was unexpectedly thrown into action last week against Toledo, but he does have plenty of experience under center with the RedHawks. Last season, he threw for 1,299 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding six more scores on the ground.
Illinois +3 vs Wisconsin
Yuck. Illinois was up 21-7 entering the fourth quarter before Wisconsin’s backup quarterback, Braedyn Locke, led a trio of scoring drives in the final frame. Much like Arkansas and Texas Tech above, this was Illinois’ eighth-straight week with a game and the Illini ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Following their bye this week, Illinois’ remaining opponents are Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa and Northwestern. If the Illini would have held on for this victory over Wisconsin, Illinois would have been one game out of first place in the Big Ten West while avoiding Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. Instead, they enter their bye week in last place.
USC vs Utah Under 56
Take a look at what Utah’s offense had done in prior weeks: 270 total yards and 14 first downs against Florida; 219 yards and 13 first downs against UCLA; 198 yards and 14 first downs vs Oregon State. USC’s defense allowed the Utes to generate 482 yards on 6.9 yards per play for 34 points and 23 first downs. That’s really, really bad. Between Lincoln Riley’s shenanigans with the local media and Caleb Williams’ constant stream of headlines regarding the NFL, the bloom has fallen off the rose in a hurry for the Trojans this season.
TCU +6.5 at Kansas State
Bad call on our part. From a situation perspective, we felt good with the Horned Frogs and didn’t believe that Kansas State was worthy of laying a touchdown in this spot. From an x’s and o’s standpoint, this was a really poor matchup for the Horned Frogs and we should have put more stock into that. TCU’s defense can’t stop the run, and the Wildcats’ offense took full advantage en route to 343 rushing yards. Four K-State players generated at least 60 rushing yards, including both quarterbacks.
South Carolina +7 at Missouri
One team scored touchdowns and the other one kicked field goals. If you would have said before the game that Missouri QB Brady Cook was going to be held to 14-of-24 passing for 198 yards, we’re probably feeling pretty good about our position on South Carolina. But the Gamecocks’ offense was held to five field goal attempts and never found the end zone.