Each week during the college football season, we will do an autopsy to figure out where we were right, where we were wrong and where the box score may not have lined up with the final result. Here are some notable results from Week 7:
Where We Were Right…
Stanford +12 at Colorado
This bet certainly wasn’t looking great when the score was 29-0 at halftime, but thankfully they play 60 minutes in college football (or since this game went to double overtime, they played about 67 minutes). Our handicap was based on the gauntlet of a schedule that Colorado had played up to that point: No cupcakes. No FCS opponents. No bye weeks. They were playing a Stanford team off its own bye week while Colorado was on a short week, plus travel. The box score reflects a close game: 532-523 in total yards and 33-30 in first downs. With the Buffaloes on a bye week, they should be able to catch their breath a little bit before the stretch run of the Pac-12 schedule.
Pitt +7.5 vs Louisville
We’ll gladly take the win, but we’re still scratching our head over how Louisville was laying more than a touchdown in this spot. Several other influential bettors agreed because there was a steady flow of Panthers money all week. The Cardinals dominated the box score: 444-288 in total yards and 28-13 in first downs, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and went 0-for-4 on fourth down. Pitt quarterback Christian Veilleux was 12-of-26 for 200 passing yards and two touchdowns in his first start. Pitt wasn’t great, but Louisville should not have been laying more than a touchdown on the road.
North Carolina -3 vs Miami (Fla)
It took seven weeks, but we finally saw why North Carolina was so passionate about getting Devontez Walker on the field. For those that are unfamiliar, Walker transferred to North Carolina during the offseason, but he was mysteriously denied a waiver to play and had to sit for the Tar Heels’ first four games. He got his feet wet in last week’s win over Syracuse, but he stole the spotlight in this one: Six catches for 132 receiving yards and three touchdowns. North Carolina won the turnover battle 4-0, but the Tar Heels were sloppy with penalties, committing 14 for 147 yards.
Navy vs Charlotte Under 39
Charlotte is 1-5 this season, but keep an eye on the 49ers’ defense over the rest of the year. Over the last three weeks, here’s what Charlotte’s defense has accomplished: Held Florida to 22 points (one touchdown and five field goals) while the Gators went 1-for-9 on third down; Held SMU to 363 total yards, with 95 of those yards coming on one play; And held Navy to 265 total yards on ten first downs. The Midshipmen went 3-for-15 on third down and had to punt 11 times in this contest. Biff Poggi is quickly building a formidable defense at Charlotte.
Georgia State vs Marshall Over 53
Bettors and oddsmakers are both scratching their chins over what to do with Marshall right now. In 11 games against FBS-level opponents last season, Marshall’s games had an average total of 48.2 and the under was 8-3. Over the last three weeks, Marshall has played in games that have seen 76, 89 and 65 points. Blip on the radar with only a three-game sample size, or the start of a bigger change for the Herd? Cam Fancher continues to impress under center, but Marshall’s defense is allowing an alarming number of big plays.
San Jose State vs New Mexico Over 55
Opposing defenses are not going to enjoy preparing for San Jose State’s offense the rest of the season. The Spartans generated 6.7 yards per play two weeks ago at Boise State, and they followed that up with a whopping 10.8 yards per play last week against New Mexico. Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley combined for 249 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro threw for 272 yards on just eight completions. With games against Utah State and Hawaii coming up, good luck to the oddsmakers hoping to attract some “under” money in San Jose State’s games.
Wisconsin vs Iowa Under 35
Iowa is 6-1 and will likely be favored in each of its next four games (Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers and Illinois). There’s a chance we’re looking at a 10-1 Iowa team a month from now with one of the worst offenses in college football history. Here are some numbers, courtesy of The Tailgate Tent: The Hawkeyes are last in offensive success rate this season, last in EPA per play (expected points), 132nd in yards per play, 132nd in 3-and-out rate and 124th in explosive play rate.
Kansas State -1 at Texas Tech
Texas Tech was getting too much credit for wins over Houston and Baylor, with the Bears showing signs as being one of the worst Power Five teams in the country. The Red Raiders out-gained Kansas State 480-435, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed the Wildcats to gain 6.7 yards per play. Kansas State appears to be making a move at quarterback with true freshman Avery Johnson gaining more playing time over incumbent Will Howard. Johnson was 8-of-9 for 77 passing yards and scored all five of Kansas State’s touchdowns.
Where We Were Wrong…
Ohio -7 at Northern Illinois
The Bobcats were dominant in the first half and should have taken a bigger lead into halftime. They let the Huskies stick around and paid the price for it. Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke threw three interceptions as Northern Illinois enjoyed a 3-0 advantage in turnovers. The Huskies have become very reliant on big plays in recent weeks. Northern Illinois only had 14 first downs and wasn’t able to move the chains on a consistent basis. But maybe you don’t need to do that when you’re reeling off 50-yard touchdowns every week. Over the last two weeks, here is how Northern Illinois has found the end zone: 58-yard pass, 53-yard run, one-yard run, 50-yard run, 45-yard run, 58-yard run, 34-yard pass, three-yard run, 66-yard run and 64-yard pass. Go big or go home. Sports Info Solutions releases a chart each week which shows how “true” each college football result is based on expected point differential. Northern Illinois’ win was the third “ugliest” win of the week.
Oregon State vs UCLA Under 54
For the third week in a row, UCLA freshman quarterback Dante Moore has thrown a pick-six in the first half and all three of them have come at crucial moments. Against Utah, it happened on the first play of the game. Over the last two weeks, it’s happened in the final seconds of the first half. The Bruins were able to overcome an 88-yard pick-six last week against Washington State, but they weren’t able to overcome the 67-yard pick-six with 48 seconds remaining in the first half of this one. This game likely would have looked a little different in the second half if it was 16-10 or 16-13 at halftime instead of 23-10.
TCU vs BYU Under 52.5
You’ve got to feel for TCU quarterback Chandler Morris a little bit. Morris was the starter last year before Max Duggan took control of the team and led the Horned Frogs to the National Championship game. Morris got his second chance this year, but TCU was 3-3 with him at the helm before his injury last week. Backup Josh Hoover was 37-of-58 for 439 yards and four touchdowns in this game against BYU, and TCU fans are asking once again, “Did we have the wrong starter again?!” We’ll see how well Hoover handles the tough road environment at Kansas State this week.
Georgia -31.5 vs Vanderbilt
The Bulldogs never really threatened to cover this point spread, but the bigger news out of this contest is the injury to All-American tight end Brock Bowers. Last week, we compared the Carson Beck-to-Brown Bowers connection to Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in the NFL: Everyone knows it’s coming, but few teams have been able to stop it. Bowers had put up some monster numbers over the last four weeks, but he suffered an ankle injury in this one and will miss some time. He’s getting a couple opinions this week to see if surgery is necessary.
USC +3 at Notre Dame
The writing was on the wall over the last couple weeks: A not-very-impressive effort over Arizona State followed by 564 yards allowed to Colorado followed by a triple overtime game with Arizona. We chalked it up to USC being bored and playing with its food. Apparently that was not the case and the Trojans have some serious issues. The Trojans earned 302 total yards on 4.1 yards per play while turning the ball over five times.