Each week during the college football season, we will do an autopsy to figure out where we were right, where we were wrong and where the box score may not have lined up with the final result. Here are some notable results from Week 6:
Where We Were Right…
Sam Houston State +19 at Liberty
We’re at the point of the season where paying attention to strength of schedule can really make a difference. Heading into this game, Liberty had previously beaten Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Buffalo and Florida International. Sam Houston had played Air Force, Houston and BYU. That’s a massive difference in quality, and it showed. Liberty was certainly the better team, but the Flames were not 19 points better. Both teams had 19 first downs apiece. Sam Houston was comfortably within the point spread the entire game.
NC State -6.5 vs Marshall
This one falls under the “We got the result right, but now how we drew it up” category. There are two big takeaways from this game. First, this is not your Marshall team of old. Previous editions of the Herd were built on defense and running the ball. Running back Rasheen Ali is still the best player on the team, but this version of Marshall is much more explosive on offense. Quarterback Cam Fancher attempted 51 passes against NC State. The week prior against Old Dominion, he was 29-of-35 for 278 yards and two touchdowns. For the second week in a row, Marshall has been involved in a game with six total turnovers, and that takes us to our second point which involves NC State. Wolfpack fans were calling for backup quarterback MJ Morris after starter Brennan Armstrong was ineffective during the first month of the season. Well, they got a ride on the Morris Express. He was 17-of-32 for 265 passing yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. In addition to those three interceptions, there were several other turnover-worthy plays. With Duke, Miami (Fla) and Clemson on deck, Morris can’t be that careless with the football.
North Carolina vs Syracuse Under 59.5
North Carolina’s defense has given up 17 points to South Carolina, 13 to Minnesota, 17 to Pitt and seven to Syracuse. That’s impressive. Keep an eye on the status of Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader this week as the Orange prepare for Florida State. There were some rumors that he wasn’t 100-percent heading into this game with the Tar Heels, and the Syracuse offense reflected that: 221 total yards on 4.3 yards per play with 11 first downs.
Oklahoma +4 vs Texas
There are several ways you can slice this one. If you were on Oklahoma, the Sooners were covering the point spread for all 60 minutes of this contest. Texas’ largest lead was four points, and they only had that for four minutes and four seconds. The Sooners had 28 first downs and didn’t turn the ball over. Those were the positives. If you wanted to play devil’s advocate, Oklahoma was +3 in turnovers and had half the number of penalties and penalty yards as Texas, and still needed a last-minute touchdown to win the game. The Sooners’ defense allowed the Longhorns to gain 6.8 yards per play and only forced one punt.
San Jose State +9 at Boise State
The end got a lot tighter than anticipated, but the Spartans had this number covered for all 60 minutes. San Jose State jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and a 27-14 lead at halftime, but didn’t score in the second half. Maddux Madsen took the majority of Boise State’s snaps over previous starter Taylen Green as the Broncos look to jumpstart their offense ahead of conference play.
UCLA -3.5 vs Washington State
For the second game in a row, UCLA freshman QB Dante Moore threw a screen pass directly to a defender, which was returned for a touchdown. He did it on the first play of the game two weeks ago against Utah, and this one against Washington State was returned 88 yards for a touchdown with seven seconds left in the first half. Thankfully for Bruin backers, UCLA was able to overcome this one. The Bruins out-gained Wazzu 470-216 as Washington State was only able to generate 12 rushing yards in the contest.
Michigan -18 vs Minnesota
How long can PJ Fleck stick with Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback? He was 5-of-15 for 52 passing yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Minnesota’s offense generated 169 total yards on 3.1 yards per play with ten first downs. The Gophers had more punts (seven) than passing completions (five).
Where We Were Wrong…
Georgia vs Kentucky Under 48
Much like the Mahomes-Kelce combination in the NFL, opposing defenders know that Carson Beck is looking for Brock Bowers when he drops back to pass, but few teams have been able to stop it. Over his last four games, Bowers has 31 catches for 464 yards and four touchdowns. Kentucky knew what was coming and still couldn’t stop it. We’ll see if other SEC teams have a little bit more success in the coming weeks.
Miami vs Georgia Tech Over 57
In last week’s newsletter we said, “Mario Cristobal will have his hands full this week with getting the ‘Canes to focus on a Georgia Tech team that just lost to a MAC squad, while North Carolina and Clemson loom on deck after this week. Miami is 6-12 against the spread in its last 18 games as a favorite with six outright losses.” Whelp, you can make that seven outright losses. Turnovers and penalties killed any kind of offensive momentum on either side. There were seven turnovers and 17 penalties in the game. Without knowing the score, if you would have looked at Miami’s box score and seen 453 total yards with 23 first downs on 5.5 yards per play while converting 50-percent of third down attempts, you probably would have assumed that their point total was safely into the mid-30s. That was not the case.
Central Michigan -3 at Buffalo
This one never had a shot as Central Michigan turned the ball over four times, including two interceptions that were returned for a touchdown.
Maryland +19 at Ohio State
The Terps were up by a touchdown midway through the third quarter while getting 19 points and still couldn’t get this one home. Taulia Tagovailoa was 21-of-41 for 196 passing yards with two interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.
TCU vs Iowa State Over 52
When you have 398 total yards and 23 first downs on 5.5 yards per play, you should finish the game with more than 14 points. TCU threw four interceptions, and starting QB Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game with a leg injury.
USC vs Arizona Under 72
We’ve been on the unlucky end of a couple overtime games this season. This game stayed under the total by 16 points in regulation and was still under the total after the first overtime, but the dam eventually broke in the second overtime period. Arizona’s defense held the Trojans to 365 total yards and Caleb Williams looked human for most of the game, throwing for just 219 passing yards. Right handicap, wrong result.
Louisiana vs Texas State Over 68
This one was a roller coaster. There was 953 yards of offense and 50 first downs in the contest and only three punts in the game. The pace of play was there, but each team made one too many mistakes to get this one home for us. In the first half, Louisiana fumbled on the Texas State one-yard-line while going in for a touchdown. In the second half, Louisiana fumbled at the Texas State 30-yard-line, then Texas State returned the favor by throwing an interception at the Louisiana 27-yard-line. The game ended with Louisiana taking knees at the Texas State goalline in the final minute instead of punching in one last score.