Each week during the college football season, we will do an autopsy to figure out where we were right, where we were wrong and where the box score may not have lined up with the final result. Here are some notable results from Week 5:
Where We Were Right…
We played a lot of totals last week, and we had some nice success. Over the last two weeks, our featured totals in the newsletter have gone 7-1. We found ourselves backing a lot of “overs” last week as you’ll see below, and got several of them to the cashier’s window. The story at the beginning of the season was about how the new clock rules were shortening games. That was true, and totals were dropping because of it. Teams are getting fewer possessions and running fewer plays than they have been in prior seasons. But once the data was out there and coaches realized what was going on, several teams began to step on the gas a little bit harder. If you’re a team like Michigan, you’ve been a 20-point favorite in every game thus far and you have a clear talent edge over 95-percent of the rest of the country. If you play at a snail’s pace, you’re decreasing your win/cover expectancy. If you have a clear talent edge over your opponent, you should be trying to play faster with more possessions to assert that talent edge. The slower you play, the fewer possessions you’ll have and the greater the chance for something shocking to happen if the opponent hits a couple fluke plays. Iowa could learn a thing or two in this department.
BYU vs Cincinnati Over 47.5
This was a relatively easy win that cashed by the end of the third quarter, but BYU’s Houdini act is the bigger story. The Cougars were out-gained by 203 yards, had nine fewer first downs, ran 31 fewer plays and still beat Cincinnati. It’s the second time in three weeks that this has happened. BYU was out-gained by 143 yards in the Cougars’ road win at Arkansas. BYU has been held below 300 total yards in three of its four games against FBS-level opponents this season.
Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green Over 49
Another one that was in the bank by the end of the third quarter, but definitely not the way it was drawn up. Georgia Tech jumped out to a 14-0 lead less than six minutes into the game, then completely fell apart. The Yellow Jackets earned 417 total yards while only having the ball for 17:15. Haynes King threw two costly interceptions and Georgia Tech committed three turnovers in the game. After generating 7.2 yards per play, Georgia Tech’s offense should be fine, but the defense has some glaring issues. Bowling Green converted 26 first downs, including 10-of-17 on third down. The Yellow Jackets demoted former co-defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker and promoted Kevin Sherrer to run the defense this week against Miami (Fla).
USC vs Colorado Over 73.5
This one played out as we were expecting: 1,062 yards of total offense, 58 combined first downs and both teams comfortably averaging over 6.0 yards per play. Colorado has plenty of talent at the skill positions, but the Buffaloes are sorely lacking in the trenches.
Navy vs South Florida Over 54 / Air Force vs San Diego State Over 43
These were two of our favorite plays last week, and they covered by 16 and 21 points, respectively. During the offseason, the NCAA introduced new rules to prevent chop blocking, which many assumed would affect the service academies and teams that ran triple-option attacks. All three teams – Army, Navy and Air Force – laid an egg in their FBS openers this season, but look how they have responded since. Air Force only scored 13 points in its first FBS contest against Sam Houston, and has followed that up by scoring 39, 45 and 49 points over the last three weeks. Navy opened the season scoring three points against Notre Dame. We heard about the Midshipmen making a change in offensive philosophy heading into this season and wanting to pass the ball more. We certainly didn’t see it in the opener in Ireland, but the Midshipmen have thrown the ball a combined 30 times over the last two weeks.
Where We Were Wrong…
Indiana +14 at Maryland
Tom Allen’s seat in Bloomington was pretty warm entering the year, and it certainly isn’t cooling off. Allen made a switch at quarterback to Tayven Jackson a couple weeks ago, but the move hasn’t worked and Allen was forced to go back to original starter, Brendan Sorsby. Walt Bell was fired as offensive coordinator after this game, and the Hoosiers have a bye this week to prepare for Michigan in two weeks.
Florida +1.5 at Kentucky
If you would have said before the game, “Graham Mertz is going to go 25-of-30 for 244 passing yards and two touchdowns, and Devin Leary is going to go 9-of-20 for 69 passing yards,” would you still bet on Florida? We certainly would. Unfortunately for the Gators, they had no means to stopping the Wildcats’ rushing attack. Kentucky generated 7.1 yards per play behind 329 rushing yards. Re’Mahn Davis earned 280 rushing yards on 10.8 yards per carry. But the Wildcats are going to need to figure something out in the passing game if they want to be serious contenders in the SEC pecking order.
Illinois +1 at Purdue
The biggest issue for Bret Bielema right now is that his ship is taking on water from multiple holes and he can’t plug them all. The Illini started the season with concerns on defense after Toledo generated 416 total yards and 28 first downs in the opener, followed by 539 total yards and 27 first downs from Kansas. Illinois’ lost its defensive coordinator from last season and a handful of notable defenders to the NFL Draft. Coach Bielema has tightened things up on defense over the last three weeks, but now his offense can’t get anything going. The Illini were 2-of-14 on third down against the Boilermakers.
Houston +8.5 at Texas Tech
This game definitely belongs in the “Where We Were Wrong” category, but if you’ve been consuming our content all season, you knew we didn’t feel comfortable backing a Dana Holgorsen-coached team. Houston had every conceivable advantage: Facing a back-up QB while holding an 89-yard advantage in total offense, having five more first downs, running 16 more plays and not turning the ball over once. And they still lost by 21. When you have 489 total yards on 6.5 yards per play, go 9-of-15 on third down and don’t turn the ball over…you’re not supposed to lose by 21 points. Coach Holgorsen delivers these gems on an almost-weekly basis.
LSU -2.5 at Ole Miss
LSU had the lead for 29:41 of the 30 minutes in the second half, but the Tigers didn’t have the lead when it mattered most. LSU generated 637 yards on 8.5 yards per play with 34 first downs, but the Tigers’ defense couldn’t get a stop. The Rebels did not turn the ball over and only punted twice. A sleepy noon ET kickoff at Missouri is probably not what Brian Kelly was hoping for this week as he attempts to regain the locker room after a pair of tough early-season losses to Florida State and Ole Miss.
TCU -13 vs West Virginia
This was our favorite spot in the first month of the season, and the betting market agreed with us. We released this at TCU -11 and it got pushed out to -14.5 during the week. If you would have said before the game, “TCU is going to out-gain West Virginia by 90 yards, TCU is not going to turn the ball over, and West Virginia QB Garrett Greene is going to go 10-of-21 through the air,” we’re making this bet again without hesitation. The Horned Frogs were up by a touchdown at halftime and never found the scoreboard in the second half after a fantastic effort from the Mountaineers’ rushing defense. With a bye this week, West Virginia will likely be favored in three of its next four games before traveling to Oklahoma. The Mountaineers may make some noise in the Big XII this season.