The spectacle that is the NFL Draft always has so much hype, and the weekend always goes by so quickly. The draft began a week ago, and now the dust has settled, so it is time to dive into the NFL win totals market to take a look at some bets to make based on how certain teams have drafted.
We know the Colts, Panthers, and Texans all drafted quarterbacks who are expected to start sooner than later, but how much better will these teams be? Did any team have a killer draft and catapult themselves into must-bet territory? Let’s take a look at the best NFL win total bets to make now that the draft is over, so we can beat the market before it matures and becomes hyper-efficient.
Best NFL Win Total Bets
Arizona Cardinals Under 4.5 Wins -110 (DraftKings)
We knew the Cardinals were not going to be great this year. They were bad last year, and then their quarterback went down with an injury that will sideline him for most, if not all, of the 2023-2024 NFL season. However, while I love the Cardinals’ under 4.5 wins this year, that is not to say that I did not like what they did on draft night. Trading for future capital was 100% the right move, especially considering that the first-round pick they received from Houston can very easily be in the top 10 next year. I also love the Paris Johnson selection in the first round and the BJ Ojulari selection in the 2nd.
As for the Cardinals’ 2023 outlook, with no Murray, a new coach who I do not believe to be a good one, an aging defense, and a bad offensive line, it is hard to see Arizona being good. In fact, they do not want to be good – next year’s draft class is already expected to be better than this year’s, and the Cardinals would be better off throwing in the towel this year. This number was 5.5 before the draft and now dropped to 4.5. I still think it is playable, and the Cardinals, who play in a tough division, could also be a good bet to have the worst record in all of football.
Carolina Panthers Over 7.5 Wins -135 (DraftKings)
This column is not supposed to be an overreaction to the NFL Draft – we just think the Panthers are legitimately good now. We had the Panthers as a great bet before the draft, and we like them just as much, if not more, post-draft. Carolina is already good on defense, so they opted to focus on offense in the draft. They snagged the best player, QB Bryce Young, and a great wide receiver, Jonathan Mingo.
Even at -135, I believe the right thing to do is to pounce on this line now for a few reasons. For starters, the Bryce Young hype train has not fully left the station – once glowing reports coming out of training camp are talking about how good he is, this number will undoubtedly go to 8. Secondly, the NFC South is the worst division in football. The Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers are not complete pushovers, but they are not even close to Super Bowl contenders either. Carolina is arguably better than all three. Lastly, the Panthers’ defense is underrated. That unit can keep them in games, and I expect Bryce Young to be great, so the sky is the limit for the Panthers in 2023.
Green Bay Packers Under 7.5 Wins -145 (DraftKings)
The Green Bay Packers no long have Aaron Rodgers, and the Jordan Love era is set to begin. While we have not seen enough Love to make a declaration about how good or bad he truly is, the early signs are not promising. Green Bay won just eight games with, admittedly, not the best version of Rodgers, but how in the world can we expect Love to match that total next season?
Matt LeFluer is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL in recent memory. Casuals point to his win-loss record, while legitimate analysis has realized that he is terrible at calling a game and maximizing talent. Green Bay made somewhat of a concerted effort to get Love pass catcher by spending both their second-round picks and their third-round pick on offensive players. But do we really expect Love and a cast of rookies to win eight games in a fairly competitive NFC North? Yes, the Packers’ defense is slightly above average, but this is a tall task.
Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins +100 (DraftKings)
A year after making the playoffs as one of the biggest overperforming teams in the NFL, it sure looks like the Vikings took a step back. The Vikings lost a lot more talent than they gained during free agency, and, in my opinion, they had a very mediocre draft. A year after being the top team in the NFC North, the Vikings may find themselves closer to the bottom this year.
Jordan Addison may prove to be a great compliment to Justin Jefferson, but I am not sold on his size and skill set. The Vikings chose cornerbacks in back-to-back rounds, which is a big need of theirs, but they will be asking too much out of these two rookies. The Vikings only had one pick in the top 100 of the draft, and they used it on a wide receiver. For a team with this many holes, the Vikings did not improve last weekend.
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