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AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview and Odds

Jason Day eyeing a putt

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a tune-up to next week’s PGA Championship. WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang shares his thoughts on this week’s event with betting tips, DFS recommendations and players to avoid. 

AT&T Byron Nelson Field

It’s the week before a Major, which is always a tricky week to handicap as we don’t know the mindset of the big names. Jordan Spieth has already pulled out of this weeks tourney after missing the cut last week, and someone that I had my eye on, JJ Spaun, just pulled out as well. That still leaves us with Scottie Scheffler, Tyrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Jason Day and two-time defending champion KH Lee in the field this week.

They’ve only played the AT&T Byron Nelson at this course for three years, and it’s a resort-style birdie fest. There are holes with water hazards and the rough has some trees, but this has been ranked in the top-five easiest courses on Tour the last couple years. Last year had 20+ MPH winds, but those won’t be here this week as winds won’t top 15 MPH as of now. The course is a par 71 this year as it was a par 72 the previous two years.

These courses all come down to approach and putting as it’s not very long so the bombers don’t have a big advantage. Everyone should find the par 5’s reachable so it comes down to who can hit the greens with good proximity to the hole, and who can one-putt the most. Let’s take a look at the top-nine in Total Strokes Gained this year in the field:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Jason Day
3. Tyrell Hatton
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Si Woo Kim
7. Tom Kim
8. Ben Griffin
9. Tom Hoge

For fun, let’s look at Total Strokes Gained in the field just in the last six weeks, and note the differences:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Jimmy Walker
4. KH Lee
5. Sam Stevens
6. Tyrell Hatton
7. Jason Day
8. Adam Scott
9. Hideki Matsuyama

AT&T Byron Nelson Players to Avoid

Scottie Scheffler – He has to win or at least finish top-3 to pay dividends, and this isn’t the type of course he thrives at. His putting is awful at -0.24 the last six weeks, and he hasn’t finished better than 15th at this tournament. He loves playing in Texas, but this is tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship, and I don’t see his putting or his motivation being great this week. He’ll play respectable, but I don’t like him to win this week and if I don’t like him to win, he doesn’t provide any value.

Jason Day – We had him as a player to fade last week, and he missed the cut so having him priced as a top-6 golfer this week seems like a stretch. He had the case of vertigo that hit him at The Masters that caused his meltdown, and he took time off and returned last week only to miss the cut. We see these guys go into slumps really quick on Tour, and Jason Day was a big money maker for us to start the season. Until I see him return to that form, I’ll stay away and I certainly won’t be investing in him at this price.

AT&T Byron Nelson DFS Darlings

I’ll be staying away from the high-priced guys this week was I can’t find many guys below $8,000 that I like. So I will not be using stars-and-scrubs this week.

Tom Kim – $9,600
Matt Kuchar – $9,000
Andrew Novak ($7,000) – He made the cut last week in a tougher field, and that’s now seven made cuts in his last eight events, including each of the last four. He made the cut and finished 46th last year here.
Michael Kim ($7,500) – He’s on a nice run of seven made cuts in a row and finished seventh last week. This is a weaker field than the one he saw last week.
Stephen Jaeger ($8,200) – Jaeger has finished 27th and 18th the last two weeks and easily made the cut last year finishing 38th and 17th two years ago. He should be good enough to make the weekend and get us points over four days.

AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bet

Jimmy Walker -129 over Cameron Champ

Anytime we can bet against Cameron Champ, we will. Champ has two made cuts this year: One at The Mexico Open, a course that sets up beautifully for his game, and the Farmers Insurance Open back in January where he finished 53rd. He’s missed the cut in 18 out of his last 23 tournaments and his stats are terrible, especially in putting. His big advantage is in driving distance, and this just isn’t a course where the bombers have the big advantage. Most of the holes are shorter so everyone will have short irons into the greens. Walker has been shockingly good recently as he’s finished 14th, 15th, 25th and 22nd in his last four tournaments and he’s 5-2 in head-to-head matchups against Champ this year. Champ barely made the cut last year here. Walker didn’t play here last year, but with Walker’s recent form and great stats in putting and tee-to-green, I love him to finish ahead of Champ.