The fourth and final major of the 2023 golf calendar will tee off this weekend at Royal Liverpool. Rory McIlroy captured the Claret Jug the last time the Open Championship was held here in 2014, and he’s the second-favorite on the odds board to do it again this week. WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang shares his thoughts on this week’s field with betting tips, DFS recommendations and players to avoid.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club
This week’s tournament will be played at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, but you’ll hear it called Hoylake all week as the course is right next to the lake. To be honest, this course is pretty easy if there isn’t really difficult weather, and early forecasts are calling for favorable conditions. The course is fairly flat and guarded by some bunkers around the fairways and greens, as well as some areas of really thick and long fescue. It also has some interesting out-of-bounds boundaries that are shockingly close to the fairways, so a wayward shot can mean an immediate one shot penalty. Other than that, it’s pretty straight forward, beautiful, and for the caliber of this field, it should be a birdiefest, especially on the par 5’s. They played here in 2014 where Rory shot -14, but they’ve changed many of the holes since then so it won’t play exactly the same as it did a decade ago. Some fairways are narrow, so accuracy is more important than length. On the par 5’s, these guys will let ’em rip in hopes for eagle opportunities and plenty of birdies.
Open Championship Field
Scottie Scheffler (+700)
Rory McIlroy (+800)
Jon Rahm (+1000)
Brooks Koepka (+1800)
Cam Smith (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
I’m going to go with Scottie Scheffler as my Favorite Fave. His putting struggles are well-documented, but his tee-to-green is the best in golf right now. If he has a tournament where his putting clicks for all four rounds, he could win by a big margin. For 2023, he’s +3.13 Strokes Gained tee-to-green and -0.05 Strokes Gained putting. Rickie Fowler’s putting is +0.61 for the year, and if Scheffler putts anywhere near Fowler, Scheffler would be unstoppable. He’s finished seven-straight tournaments in the top-5, including a third-place finish last week at the Scottish Open. His upside is through the roof, and his floor is the highest in golf right now.
Dark Horse: JT Poston (+150 to Finish Top-40) – He finished sixth last week at the Scottish Open, and sixth the week before that at The John Deere. Those courses share some similarities to this week’s course where you don’t have to be long off the tee, and you can score low if your putter is hot. His putter has been red-hot the last two weeks. His approach numbers haven’t been fantastic, but he’s still shot -9 and -16 the last two weeks, and maybe this is a short hot streak for him, but if he plays this week like he’s played the last two tournaments, this is a fantastic price.
Open Championship Players to Avoid
Jordan Spieth – He’s never missed the cut at an Open Championship, he’s won an Open Championship, and he’s finished eighth and second the last two years. However, he’s clearly still hurt with the torn tendon in his hand, and after missing the cut at the Scottish Open, that’s three missed cuts in his last four tournaments. He’s struggling with driving and approaches, and with this loaded field and an easy course, he’s going to struggle to keep up with everyone. We cashed by fading him last week, we’ll do it again this week.
Xander Shauffele – His record on links style courses isn’t great, and he’s priced as a top-6 guy this week which seems over-valued. He had a miserable final round to fall out of the top-40 at the Scottish Open last week after winning last year, and his finishes at Open Championships are 20th, second, 41st, 26th and 15th. Those are respectable finishes, but not when you’re priced as a top-6 player. I won’t be playing him in any fashion this week as his price is too high and there are much better options.
Jon Rahm – I think people are going to be disappointed with Rahm if they invest in him this week. He didn’t play in the Scottish Open last week so he could be fresh for this week, but he’s priced as a top-3 golfer this week and that seems way too ambitious for me. At Open Championships he only has one top-10 finish, and that was two years ago where he finished third. Other than that, he finish 34th last year, 11th in 2019 and 44th, 59th and a missed cut in the three years before that. In his last four events, he hasn’t returned value as he’s finished 50th at the PGA Championship, 16th at The Memorial, tenth at the US Open and missed the cut at The Travelers. Investing in him recently has been quite bad. I won’t be betting on him, and I might be tempted to fade him in head-to-heads.
Open Championship DFS Darlings
Richie Ramsay ($5,900) – He finished 42nd at the Scottish Open for us as a Darling last week, and I can’t pass him up at $5,900. He hasn’t missed the cut since March when he had to withdraw from the Magical Kenya Open (yes that’s a real tournament).
Robert Macintyre ($6,800) – He’s always been undervalued, but this is crazy. He’s finished 34th, eighth, and sixth in the last three Open Championships, and he’s finished fourth and second the last two weeks. He was almost in a playoff against Rory to win the Scottish Open on Sunday. This price is insane and he should be in every lineup.
Brian Harman ($7,300) – Harman is playing great golf as he’s finished second, ninth and 12th the last three weeks. He’s finished sixth and 19th the last two years at the Open Championship. This isn’t a course you need to bomb the ball on to score, and his 12th place finish at the Scottish Open should make us very confident that he’ll see the weekend at the Open Championship.
Rest of the Lineup: Tom Kim ($8,100), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300) and Scottie Scheffler ($12,500).
Open Championship Final Score Prediction
18-Under – Rory McIlroy shot -17 in 2014 at this course, and although they’ve made changes to this course, the weather looks like it won’t be tough as the top wind will only be around 20 miles per hour. There will probably be some light rain, and that should soften up the greens for the players making approach shots easy to control. With this talented of a field, very scoreable par 5’s, and a very mild weather forecast, I see a birdie-fest this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone shoots an 8-under round this week. I think the winning score will be in the high-teens.