There is still a month until the 2023 NFL Draft, but DraftKings Sportsbook has already priced each NFL’s team win total for the 2023 season. Of course, as more players sign with other teams, trades are made, the draft happens, and unfortunately, injuries occur, win total odds will move. So, this begs the question… where is there value in the NFL win total market as it stands right now?
With so many factors at play, this is not an easy exercise by any means. With that being said, there are some teams where we at the GoldSheet feel the opening odds are overvaluing them, and others are undervalued.
Let’s dive into the opening NFL win total odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
2023 NFL Win Totals Odds
|Team||Regular Season Win Total|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5 (O -105; U -115)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||11.5 (O -105; U -115)|
|San Francisco 49ers||11.5 (O +110; U -130)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||10.5 (O -150; U +120)|
|Buffalo Bills||10.5 (O -140; U +115)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||10.5 (O +115; U -140)|
|Detroit Lions||9.5 (O -150; U +120)|
|New York Jets||9.5 (O -130; U +110)|
|Dallas Cowboys||9.5 (O -125; U +105)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5 (O -125; U +105)|
|Miami Dolphins||9.5 (O +100; U -120)|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5 (O +105; U -125)|
|Cleveland Browns||9.5 (O +115; U -140)|
|Baltimore Ravens||8.5 (O -150; U +120)|
|Minnesota Vikings||8.5 (O -130; U +110)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||8.5 (O -120; U +100)|
|Denver Broncos||8.5 (O -110; U -110)|
|Seattle Seahawks||8.5 (O -105; U -115)|
|New York Giants||8.5 (O +105; U -125)|
|New England Patriots||7.5 (O -120; U +100)|
|Chicago Bears||7.5 (O -120; U +100)|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.5 (O -120; U +100)|
|Carolina Panthers||7.5 (O -120; U +100)|
|Atlanta Falcons||7.5 (O +100; U -120)|
|Tennessee Titans||7.5 (O +115; U -125)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7.5 (O +120; U -150)|
|Green Bay Packers||7.5 (O +120; U -150)|
|Washington Commanders||7.5 (O +120; U -150)|
|Indianapolis Colts||6.5 (O -140; U +115)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.5 (O -110; U -110)|
|Houston Texans||5.5 (O -110; U -110)|
|Arizona Cardinals||5.5 (O +110; U -130)|
2023 NFL Win Totals: Undervalued Teams
Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 Wins (-110)
Heading into last season, Seattle’s win total was 5.5, and the Seahawks went on to win nine games and make the postseason. After a full season of Geno Smith proving he is more than capable of being an NFL starter, the Seahawks are expected to regress this season. Based on their moves this off-season, how weak the NFC West is, and the fact that they can add two studs in the first round of this year’s draft, Seattle seems like a team that is still ascending.
In my free agency grades, I gave the Seahawks a B- for their moves. After his electric season last year, Seattle rewarded Smith with a three-year, well-deserved contract extension. Seattle struggled in run defense last season, so they made moved to acquire Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Devin Bush to improve. On the backend, I loved the Julian Love signing as well. Seattle also holds the No. 5 and No. 20 pick in the NFL draft. It is very possible Seattle will elect to draft a QB and let them sit and learn behind Geno, but the Seahawks can simply take a stud or even trade back for more picks. GM John Schneider has been a great drafter in his career.
Pair all this with the fact that the NFC West is going to be one of the weakest divisions in football next season, and now seems like the time to hop in on Seattle’s win total. Besides the 49ers, who are great, the Rams are still trying to escape salary cap hell, and the Cardinals are a dumpster fire with an injured starting QB. Seattle still can improve immensely in the draft, so I expect this number to jump up after the draft. The best thing to do is lock in Seattle over 8.5 wins now.
Carolina Panthers Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
The Panthers’ win total will certainly move after draft night. Carolina holds the No. 1 overall pick, and there is no doubt they will take a quarterback. The betting market seems to think CJ Stroud will be the selection, but considering Bryce Young’s talent and Anthony Richardson’s upside, there is no definitive answer at this moment. With that being said, I think Stroud will be the choice. New head coach Frank Reich struggled with the Colts since he could never figure out the QB position, but he was dealing with aging veterans and not young signal callers. I think there is no wrong choice between Stroud and Young.
So, how does a team with serious question marks at quarterback and skill positions have a shot to win eight games? It starts with their defense. The Panthers had one of the most underrated defenses in football last season, and the best part is most of these guys are young, ascending talents. Carolina strengthened this unit by signing Von Bell and Shy Tuttle, who I think were very solid signings. Not to mention, the Panthers still have picks No. 39 and 93 in the draft, so they can continue to add weapons or help defensively.
Last but not least, the NFC South is arguably the worst division in football. The Saints have the most complete roster and the highest projected win total. The Falcons have the same projected win total as the Panthers, and the Buccaneers are expected to be a bottom-three team in the NFL next season. If whoever the Panthers draft at No. 1 overall is a top-12 QB, then the trade they made was worth it, and the Panthers will be a tough team to beat next season. If that player is not good, this look is probably a loser. With that being said, I am betting on the upside of Carolina’s defense and Stroud or Young, and the best thing to do is to bet the Panthers over 7.5 wins now.
2023 NFL Win Totals: Overvalued Teams
New Orleans Saints Under 9.5 Wins (-125)
Since Drew Brees retired, the Saints have found themselves in the place where a vast majority of other NFL teams are: constantly searching for a franchise quarterback. While the Saints still kept Jameis Winston, who at a time seemed like he would take the reigns as QB1, New Orleans pivoted to making Derek Carr their starting QB. While Carr is clearly talented, in his nine-year NFL career, he has never elevated his team.
Carr won ten or more games just twice in his Raiders career. Now, not to get things twisted, the Saints’ defense now is probably better than any defense Carr played with in Oakland/Las Vegas. Still, I am not sold on Carr’s ability to elevate his teammates around him. The Saints have a good offensive line which will benefit Carr, but I am not sold that their skill position players, outside of their backfield, are truly elite.
The Saints have the benefit of playing in the weak NFC South, but, as mentioned earlier, I think the Panthers will be better than anticipated, and the Falcons have done a lot to add to their team. New Orleans’ defense is also aging, and I am not sold on head coach Dennis Allen by any means. While on paper, it may seem like the NFC South is the Saints’ division to lose, I think ten wins for this team is asking for a lot.
Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (+105)
In a few years, Brandon Staley and the Chargers will be the center point of a case study titled, “What not to do when you have a franchise QB on a rookie contract.” The fact that Staley did not get canned after the playoff loss to the Jaguars is beside me, and seeing an expectation for the Chargers to win ten games shocked me even more. Do they have talent and a stud QB? Absolutely. Are they a well-coached, good team? I’m not buying that.
The Chargers are strapped for cash, so they did not do anything exciting this off-season. Los Angeles holds the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, so they can add to their team there, but a team with this many flaws cannot sit idly by. Los Angeles has had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL the past three seasons and have done nothing to fix it. Austin Ekler is the main dog on this team’s offense, and they didn’t extend him. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are getting older, and there is no succession plan at wide receiver. And this is without even mentioning their defense, which is aging, and flat-out not good.
The AFC West was expected to be a juggernaut division last season, but this is actually the season where all teams will be competitive. The Chiefs are the Chiefs, Sean Payton gives the Broncos the best chance of being good, and the Raiders upgraded with Garoppolo over Carr. Yes, the Chargers have the undisputed second-best QB in the division, but they have the worst coach, the second-worst defense, the worst offensive coordinator and the worst cap situation. I do not expect things to get better for LA, so I will take the plus money on under 9.5 wins now.