The 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs will tee off this week with the FedEx St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind outside of Memphis, Tennessee. The Tour’s top 70 players will take the course this week, with the top 50 advancing to the next round of the playoffs. How will it all shake out? WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang shares his thoughts on the field with betting tips, DFS recommendations and players to avoid.
FedEx St Jude Course | TPC Southwind
This course is a par 70 layout with only two par 5’s, so scoring on the par 4’s and par 3’s will be essential for the outright winner. The course features many water hazards, and the heat in Memphis will be scorching on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with some scattered thunderstorms mixed in. Expect a hot, humid and tough tournament. The course features several par 4’s over 450 yards, so it’s not going to be a birdie fest. I expect the winning score to be between -10 and -13. Here are three holes that look intriguing and could impact the leaderboard this weekend:
- Hole 3-Par 5…554 Yards—This hole could be a birdie or a nightmare as there is water on the right side of the fairway all the way up to the green. Hitting a good drive will give players a chance to go for it in two, but any shot that fades to the right will be wet. Any shot that misses the fairway will be a layup, but with only two par 5’s on this course, expect aggressive play on this hole.
- Hole 14-Par 3…239 Yards—Just a brutal par 3 where getting a par is good score. It’s an elevated tee with water to the right and bunker long and to the left. The green has plenty of ridges and holes making putts difficult as well. Players will be happy if they play this hole at par this week.
- Hole 18-Par 4…453 yards—A great closing hole as the hole is a big dogleg to the left with water on the left side of the entire hole. Drives that go left are in the water, drives that go right are in the rough and possibly behind trees. The second shot is tough as pulling it left is in the water so players are left with the decision of being safe or aggressive.
FedEx St Jude Field
Top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last three months:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Wyndham Clark
4. Tyrell Hatton
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Rickie Fowler
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Jon Rahm
FedEx St Jude Players to Avoid
Scottie Scheffler – How good has Scheffler’s tee-to-green game been over the last few months? The highest-priced golfer in the field is -0.47 Strokes Gained putting the last three months. So he’s No. 1 in this week’s field in Total Stroks Gained, despite losing strokes on the green. We saw it catch up to him at The Open Championship as he barely made the cut and had a great last round to finish 23rd. He hasn’t finished better than 14th at this course the last three times playing it, so having him as the top-priced golfer seems like a real stretch. With a stacked field, I’ll have my money on golfers who aren’t as bad putting as him this week.
Viktor Hovland – On paper, Hovland looks like a solid pick this week, but after his win at The Memorial he’s finished 19th, 29th, 25th and 13th, and like always with him it’s his putting and around the green that continues to be the weak part of his game. Hovland has no finishes in the top-20 at this event, and he’s priced as a top-five player. I think he will disappoint this week.
Brian Harman – The last two months he’s +1.38 Srokes Gained putting which is best in the field, but he’s extremely short off the tee and I think this course may give him trouble. This is also Harman’s first tourney since winning The Open Championship so his stock will never be higher. He’s priced as the 18th-best golfer this week, and while he’s finished 1st, 12th, 9th and 2nd the previous four tournaments. Before that, he finished 43rd, 29th, 7th, 44th, 42nd, 32nd and missed the cut EIGHT times. If he regresses back to how he was playing before his recent hot streak, he will disappoint everyone who bets on him this one.
FedEx St Jude DFS Darlings
Eric Cole ($6,900) – If you’ve been following me, you know Eric Cole is the DFS MVP this year. He finished 14th last week and continues to be underpriced getting us plenty of weekend points. Rinse-and-repeat again with him in your lineup this week.
JT Poston ($7,300) – I’m not sure this is a great course for him, but he has four top-7 finishes in four out of the last five weeks, and at this price I have to put him in my lineup. He finished 20th here last year so top-20 upside is there.
Stephen Jaeger ($7,300) – Another guy we just keep riding in our DFS as he’s finished 9th, 13th, 34th, 30th and 14th the last five tournaments.
Rest Of The Lineup: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100), Rickie Fowler ($9,500) and Tyrell Hatton ($9,700).
FedEx St Jude Betting Notes
- Rory McIlroy has seven-straight top-9 finishes.
- Andrew Putnam has made the cut six tourneys in a row and finished fifth here last year.
- Over the last three months, Denny McCarthy is No. 1 in the field in putting, and bottom-10 in approach.